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| If you choose (for whatever reason) to use these picks, and they end up horrible, please don't blame me! No matter how many hundreds of hours I spend watching games and researching, I never end up with a great bracket...I'm usually really good in the first round, and then after that it becomes a crapshoot. |
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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
My March Madness Bracket
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas
The tournament starts in less than two days, and by the end of the weekend, we will undoubtedly have seen upsets that will leave us scratching our heads. Just as certain I am that a few powerhouses will brought down by big underdogs, I can also tell you that there will be that guy in your family, school, or office that will brag about how they KNEW that 12 seed would make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Let's face it: as much as we hate that guy, simultaneously we all want to be that guy. Here are a few of the more likelier upsets that could pay off in your bracket. I am going to give five Cinderellas (definitions for this term vary, but for now I'll use it to refer to teams seeded 9 or lower that make the Sweet Sixteen) that have the potential to shock the world.
#10 Davidson: Steph Curry may no longer be eligible, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats are without talent. They will look to run Iowa out of the building, putting up points in a hurry. If they can dictate pace of play and knock down threes, I like them to take down the Hawkeyes. If they can do that, they'll have a chance at pulling a big upset over Gonzaga, who are notorious for folding in the tourney.
#10 Davidson: Steph Curry may no longer be eligible, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats are without talent. They will look to run Iowa out of the building, putting up points in a hurry. If they can dictate pace of play and knock down threes, I like them to take down the Hawkeyes. If they can do that, they'll have a chance at pulling a big upset over Gonzaga, who are notorious for folding in the tourney.
#11 Ole Miss: BYU led Ole Miss by 17 points at halftime in their First Four matchup, but when it looked over for the Rebels, they dropped an insane 62 points in the second half to pull off the tournament's first big comeback. Now they'll get some tasty matchups against Xavier and Baylor, widely considered to be the weakest 6 and 3 seeds in the field. They will need to play strong interior defense and hit the glass hard to get past Matt Stainbrook and especially Rico Gathers, but if they can accomplish that, they have one of the best shooters in the nation when hot in Stefan Moody.
#12 Stephen F. Austin: The Lumberjacks are back, and have the potential to do even more damage than last year, when also as a 12 seed they took down VCU in one of the tournament's best games. Now with most of that team returning, including leaders Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, the Jacks will take on Utah in their first game. The Utes match up well against SFA, but have struggled down the stretch. If SFA can continue running an efficient offense and make the right passes, they can advance and will have a good shot against an overseeded Georgetown or a similar Eastern Washington.
#12 Buffalo: Speaking of SFA, Buffalo is positioned in the same place the Jacks were last season. No one was talking about the Bulls during the season, but they quietly had a really strong year in the MAC and had a top-40 RPI. They get West Virginia in the first round, and have the size and rebounding ability to pose a big threat. Remember, this is a team that led Kentucky at halftime earlier in the year (Insane Sweet 16 upset?). They would have a potential third round matchup against either Maryland or Valpo, and could manage to create a rematch with Kentucky.
#13 Eastern Washington: The nation's leading scorer led an incredible comeback in the Big Sky championship in order to make March Madness. Now Tyler Harvey, averaging just under 23 points per game, leads the Eagles who at 80.8 ppg are third in Division I in scoring. They will try to pull off a huge upset against Georgetown. The Hoyas are a better squad overall, but they are overseeded as I've mentioned, and a team that can score is always dangerous. If they advance, they have a 7-footer that could give Utah some trouble, and they play a similar style to SFA. The Eagles won't go down without a fight.
#12 Stephen F. Austin: The Lumberjacks are back, and have the potential to do even more damage than last year, when also as a 12 seed they took down VCU in one of the tournament's best games. Now with most of that team returning, including leaders Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, the Jacks will take on Utah in their first game. The Utes match up well against SFA, but have struggled down the stretch. If SFA can continue running an efficient offense and make the right passes, they can advance and will have a good shot against an overseeded Georgetown or a similar Eastern Washington.
#12 Buffalo: Speaking of SFA, Buffalo is positioned in the same place the Jacks were last season. No one was talking about the Bulls during the season, but they quietly had a really strong year in the MAC and had a top-40 RPI. They get West Virginia in the first round, and have the size and rebounding ability to pose a big threat. Remember, this is a team that led Kentucky at halftime earlier in the year (Insane Sweet 16 upset?). They would have a potential third round matchup against either Maryland or Valpo, and could manage to create a rematch with Kentucky.
#13 Eastern Washington: The nation's leading scorer led an incredible comeback in the Big Sky championship in order to make March Madness. Now Tyler Harvey, averaging just under 23 points per game, leads the Eagles who at 80.8 ppg are third in Division I in scoring. They will try to pull off a huge upset against Georgetown. The Hoyas are a better squad overall, but they are overseeded as I've mentioned, and a team that can score is always dangerous. If they advance, they have a 7-footer that could give Utah some trouble, and they play a similar style to SFA. The Eagles won't go down without a fight.
Monday, March 16, 2015
First Impressions of the Bracket
Yesterday the field of 68 for March Madness was officially released. I intended to give my final bracket predictions along with a first impressions blog yesterday, but I've been pretty sick lately, so it never ended up happening.
However, I can say that from my latest bracket, if we assume that Wyoming's auto bid took Miami's spot, I got 66/68 teams in the tournament correct, same as most bracketologists. Nearly everyone had Colorado St and Temple in the tournament, even though the committee decided otherwise. What's even more surprising to me is the teams that were included instead of them: UCLA and Indiana. Now I had both of them in my first four out, so it doesn't come as a terrible shock that they made it, but what annoys me is that neither team is in a play-in game, meaning that a 19-13 UCLA team and Indiana that lost nine of their last 14 games both weren't even in the last four teams in the tournament.
How the committee could have made these mistakes is beyond me. Colorado St and Temple were clearly more worthy in my opinion. In fact, neither one of them were in my last four in! They were both in the last four byes category! How the committee and I had such differing opinions on these four teams in beyond me. I was definitely looking forward to seeing Colorado St in the tournament. They were a solid upset pick from a 10-11 seed for me. They had won 27 games and had a sub-30 RPI, becoming the first team with an RPI that high to be left out of the field. And then Temple: I guess 25 point victories over Kansas mean nothing? Sure that was early in the year, but any team with the capability to pull that off deserves to be dancing.
I feel strongly that those four bubble teams received improper treatment from the committee. Additionally, I also feel that the committee made bad mistakes in the seedings of other teams in the tournament. Here are five teams the committee overrated and underrated.
Overrated:
1) Xavier- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 6. C'mon guys, a 13-loss 6-seed? I know they made a run to the Big East Championship, but they've lost to teams like Long Beach St, Auburn, Depaul, and Creighton. Heck of a 6.
2) Georgetown- Projected seed: 6; Actual seed: 4. Now I really like the Big East. I'd really go as far to say that they could produce as many Sweet Sixteen teams as any conference. However, I don't see how the Hoyas are any better than Butler or Providence.
3) Oklahoma St- Projected seed: 10/11; Actual seed: 9. Again, it seems the committee really loved teams from "power conferences" so much that they were willing to overlook their flaws. You can't give a team with a losing conference record a 9.
4) LSU- Projected seed: 11; Actual seed: 9. It's hard to imagine how high they would've been seeded if they hadn't loss to the awful Auburn in the SEC tournament. Did I mention an RPI of 58, DOUBLE Colorado St's?
5) Iowa- Projected seed: 8/9; Actual seed: 7. I applaud them for closing so strong in the Big Ten, but they really got beat up by the bottom of the conference, with losses to Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern.
Underrated:
1) Northern Iowa- Projected seed: 4; Actual seed: 5. 2) Wichita St- Projected Seed: 5; Actual seed: 7. With a combined seven losses between them, these two squads are vastly underrated coming from a Missouri Valley that has some really solid teams. Either one of these teams could make really surprise people and go far (and I have them both doing just that).
3) Ohio St- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 10. Expect the Buckeyes to upset VCU in the first round, taking advantage of an injured Briante Weber. They've beaten Maryland by 24, so they can play some great ball.
4) Oregon- Projected seed: 6/7; Actual seed: 8. The Ducks are as hot as any team, winning 11 out of their last 13 games in the Pac 12. Did I mention two of those came against Utah?
5) Dayton- Projected seed: 9; Actual seed: 11. The Flyers took second place in the Atlantic-10 and won at VCU earlier in the year. The 25-8 Flyers get to play in their hometown in the first four, even though they never should've been there in the first place. If they get through, Providence should watch out.
Time will tell if the committee actual did get these seedings right or if they made some bad mistakes.
However, I can say that from my latest bracket, if we assume that Wyoming's auto bid took Miami's spot, I got 66/68 teams in the tournament correct, same as most bracketologists. Nearly everyone had Colorado St and Temple in the tournament, even though the committee decided otherwise. What's even more surprising to me is the teams that were included instead of them: UCLA and Indiana. Now I had both of them in my first four out, so it doesn't come as a terrible shock that they made it, but what annoys me is that neither team is in a play-in game, meaning that a 19-13 UCLA team and Indiana that lost nine of their last 14 games both weren't even in the last four teams in the tournament.
How the committee could have made these mistakes is beyond me. Colorado St and Temple were clearly more worthy in my opinion. In fact, neither one of them were in my last four in! They were both in the last four byes category! How the committee and I had such differing opinions on these four teams in beyond me. I was definitely looking forward to seeing Colorado St in the tournament. They were a solid upset pick from a 10-11 seed for me. They had won 27 games and had a sub-30 RPI, becoming the first team with an RPI that high to be left out of the field. And then Temple: I guess 25 point victories over Kansas mean nothing? Sure that was early in the year, but any team with the capability to pull that off deserves to be dancing.
I feel strongly that those four bubble teams received improper treatment from the committee. Additionally, I also feel that the committee made bad mistakes in the seedings of other teams in the tournament. Here are five teams the committee overrated and underrated.
Overrated:
1) Xavier- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 6. C'mon guys, a 13-loss 6-seed? I know they made a run to the Big East Championship, but they've lost to teams like Long Beach St, Auburn, Depaul, and Creighton. Heck of a 6.
2) Georgetown- Projected seed: 6; Actual seed: 4. Now I really like the Big East. I'd really go as far to say that they could produce as many Sweet Sixteen teams as any conference. However, I don't see how the Hoyas are any better than Butler or Providence.
3) Oklahoma St- Projected seed: 10/11; Actual seed: 9. Again, it seems the committee really loved teams from "power conferences" so much that they were willing to overlook their flaws. You can't give a team with a losing conference record a 9.
4) LSU- Projected seed: 11; Actual seed: 9. It's hard to imagine how high they would've been seeded if they hadn't loss to the awful Auburn in the SEC tournament. Did I mention an RPI of 58, DOUBLE Colorado St's?
5) Iowa- Projected seed: 8/9; Actual seed: 7. I applaud them for closing so strong in the Big Ten, but they really got beat up by the bottom of the conference, with losses to Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern.
Underrated:
1) Northern Iowa- Projected seed: 4; Actual seed: 5. 2) Wichita St- Projected Seed: 5; Actual seed: 7. With a combined seven losses between them, these two squads are vastly underrated coming from a Missouri Valley that has some really solid teams. Either one of these teams could make really surprise people and go far (and I have them both doing just that).
3) Ohio St- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 10. Expect the Buckeyes to upset VCU in the first round, taking advantage of an injured Briante Weber. They've beaten Maryland by 24, so they can play some great ball.
4) Oregon- Projected seed: 6/7; Actual seed: 8. The Ducks are as hot as any team, winning 11 out of their last 13 games in the Pac 12. Did I mention two of those came against Utah?
5) Dayton- Projected seed: 9; Actual seed: 11. The Flyers took second place in the Atlantic-10 and won at VCU earlier in the year. The 25-8 Flyers get to play in their hometown in the first four, even though they never should've been there in the first place. If they get through, Providence should watch out.
Time will tell if the committee actual did get these seedings right or if they made some bad mistakes.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
The Bracket: Regularly Updated
This will be the page where I will be updating the bracket constantly over the next few days right up until the Selection Show. Every time a decent number of results come in, I'll update the bracket (probably around twice daily). The most recent bracket will be at the top, and older ones will be at the bottom in case you want to see how everything's moved around.
3/13: 11:30pm update
It's starting to become clearer. Thank god. Even though the SEC continued rejecting everything we thought we knew about college basketball with Auburn beating LSU, I can safely put a few more teams in the field. I now can say with relative certainty that Purdue and Temple will make the field. Both teams won and advanced into the semifinals of their respective conferences, and while an additional win would put the icing on the cake, they shouldn't have a ton to worry about. Additionally, Richmond fell to VCU, effectively ending the Spiders' chances. They already had two victories against VCU, but a third was needed to put them in the field. UCLA had a strong performance in its loss to Arizona, so I don't think they're done just yet. The Bruins will have a chance of hearing their names called on Sunday.
If I'm being perfectly honest, the far more interesting games today were played by top seeds. Both ACC one seeds (Duke and Virginia) stumbled in their tournaments to Notre Dame and North Carolina, setting up an unexpected final matchup. Villanova just barely squeaked by Providence in a great matchup. The fight for a 1 seed is now intense, as Duke, Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin will all feel worthy of being on the top line. My 1s right now would be Kentucky, Villanova, Arizona, Duke, although that is definitely subject to change. Wisconsin would take the last spot if they won the Big Ten tournament.
Lastly, the bid thieves. Wyoming is now only one game away from stealing a spot from the bubble after beating Boise State, who now becomes a bubble team (but almost certainly in the field). Here's how the bubble looks tonight. The current plan is to wait and release a final full bracket on Sunday before the selection show, and just to regularly update the bubble either here or on Twitter.
Last Four Byes: Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU, Purdue
Last Four In: LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Miami (Fl)
First Four Out: Tulsa, UCLA, Indiana, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Buffalo
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3/13: 12:30am update
What to do, what to do. It looks like no one is capable of winning a basketball game when they need to. Oklahoma St lost, and Ole Miss lost. This also probably moves LSU to being a lock, just because everyone around them is falling. Oklahoma St is probably okay, but who knows with Ole Miss, since they've lost four of five. Stanford is out with their loss against Utah, and Colorado St. is definitely in with a win. Truthfully, they were a lock a couple weeks back, but with the committee you never know. At this point, there's no way more than a couple teams could pass them, let alone the ten or so that would be needed to take them out at this point. A full bracket will come tomorrow, but I should probably sleep, so for now just a bubble update will do. I'm eager to see Lunardi's update tomorrow to see if we're thinking along the same lines. We start after Colorado St.
Last Four Byes: LSU, Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU
Last Four In: Purdue, Ole Miss, Texas, UCLA
First Four Out: Indiana, Miami (Fl), Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Old Dominion (had to put someone here)
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3/12: 9:45pm central time update
3/13: 11:30pm update
It's starting to become clearer. Thank god. Even though the SEC continued rejecting everything we thought we knew about college basketball with Auburn beating LSU, I can safely put a few more teams in the field. I now can say with relative certainty that Purdue and Temple will make the field. Both teams won and advanced into the semifinals of their respective conferences, and while an additional win would put the icing on the cake, they shouldn't have a ton to worry about. Additionally, Richmond fell to VCU, effectively ending the Spiders' chances. They already had two victories against VCU, but a third was needed to put them in the field. UCLA had a strong performance in its loss to Arizona, so I don't think they're done just yet. The Bruins will have a chance of hearing their names called on Sunday.
If I'm being perfectly honest, the far more interesting games today were played by top seeds. Both ACC one seeds (Duke and Virginia) stumbled in their tournaments to Notre Dame and North Carolina, setting up an unexpected final matchup. Villanova just barely squeaked by Providence in a great matchup. The fight for a 1 seed is now intense, as Duke, Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin will all feel worthy of being on the top line. My 1s right now would be Kentucky, Villanova, Arizona, Duke, although that is definitely subject to change. Wisconsin would take the last spot if they won the Big Ten tournament.
Lastly, the bid thieves. Wyoming is now only one game away from stealing a spot from the bubble after beating Boise State, who now becomes a bubble team (but almost certainly in the field). Here's how the bubble looks tonight. The current plan is to wait and release a final full bracket on Sunday before the selection show, and just to regularly update the bubble either here or on Twitter.
Last Four Byes: Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU, Purdue
Last Four In: LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Miami (Fl)
First Four Out: Tulsa, UCLA, Indiana, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Buffalo
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3/13: 12:30am update
What to do, what to do. It looks like no one is capable of winning a basketball game when they need to. Oklahoma St lost, and Ole Miss lost. This also probably moves LSU to being a lock, just because everyone around them is falling. Oklahoma St is probably okay, but who knows with Ole Miss, since they've lost four of five. Stanford is out with their loss against Utah, and Colorado St. is definitely in with a win. Truthfully, they were a lock a couple weeks back, but with the committee you never know. At this point, there's no way more than a couple teams could pass them, let alone the ten or so that would be needed to take them out at this point. A full bracket will come tomorrow, but I should probably sleep, so for now just a bubble update will do. I'm eager to see Lunardi's update tomorrow to see if we're thinking along the same lines. We start after Colorado St.
Last Four Byes: LSU, Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU
Last Four In: Purdue, Ole Miss, Texas, UCLA
First Four Out: Indiana, Miami (Fl), Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Old Dominion (had to put someone here)
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3/12: 9:45pm central time update
1s: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova
2s: Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas
3s: Maryland, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Baylor
4s: Oklahoma, Louisville, Iowa St, Wichita St
5s: Utah, SMU, North Carolina, Butler
6s: West Virginia, Arkansas, Providence, Georgetown
7s: Ohio St, Michigan St, VCU, Iowa
8s: San Diego St, Dayton, St. John's, Georgia
9s: Xavier, Oregon, Cincinnati, NC State
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: Boise St, LSU Temple, BYU, Purdue
12s: Texas, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, UC Davis
14s: Georgia St, Northeastern, North Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: Miami (Fl), Indiana, Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Stanford
Eliminated: Old Dominion, Illinois, Vanderbilt
Bubble Notes:
-Purdue somehow managed to get lucky by Iowa falling to Penn State, so Purdue's chances go dramatically up since Purdue only has to beat the Nittany Lions in order to move into the Big Ten semis. That very well could be enough, although Penn State really wouldn't be a quality win. The teams around them are dropping like flies, though.
-Texas, oh Texas. They had a great chance to lock up a bid by beating Iowa State, but that'd be too easy. Instead, they surrender a 12-0 run down the stretch and it's a 50/50 if they get in at this point.
-Iona. Could they be an at-large? I guess it's technically possible, but in my mind they're still behind the first four out, next four out, ODU, and Illinois at least, so I'm not putting them up there. Here's why: zero top 100 RPI wins, 5 sub-150 RPI losses.
-Hopefully we can lock up Colorado St, Oklahoma St, and Ole Miss, but they'd all need a win.
-Yes, I tweeted that Texas A&M is out, but on second thought, they still have a glimmer of hope. They were actually in my field at the start of the day, and I don't think they're any worse than someone like Stanford. They're still better than the teams I eliminated in my opinion. But yeah, Auburn is just about as bad of a loss as possible at this point.
-Anyone else have a shot with a run to their conference finals? Not really. Pitt, Bama might've stood a chance, but they both lost opening round. And I think Green Bay, Yale, Buffalo, UConn, UTEP don't have much of a shot as an at-large. But there's always the possibility of a bid thief! There's still a few lurking...
8s: San Diego St, Dayton, St. John's, Georgia
9s: Xavier, Oregon, Cincinnati, NC State
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: Boise St, LSU Temple, BYU, Purdue
12s: Texas, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, UC Davis
14s: Georgia St, Northeastern, North Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: Miami (Fl), Indiana, Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Stanford
Eliminated: Old Dominion, Illinois, Vanderbilt
Bubble Notes:
-Purdue somehow managed to get lucky by Iowa falling to Penn State, so Purdue's chances go dramatically up since Purdue only has to beat the Nittany Lions in order to move into the Big Ten semis. That very well could be enough, although Penn State really wouldn't be a quality win. The teams around them are dropping like flies, though.
-Texas, oh Texas. They had a great chance to lock up a bid by beating Iowa State, but that'd be too easy. Instead, they surrender a 12-0 run down the stretch and it's a 50/50 if they get in at this point.
-Iona. Could they be an at-large? I guess it's technically possible, but in my mind they're still behind the first four out, next four out, ODU, and Illinois at least, so I'm not putting them up there. Here's why: zero top 100 RPI wins, 5 sub-150 RPI losses.
-Hopefully we can lock up Colorado St, Oklahoma St, and Ole Miss, but they'd all need a win.
-Yes, I tweeted that Texas A&M is out, but on second thought, they still have a glimmer of hope. They were actually in my field at the start of the day, and I don't think they're any worse than someone like Stanford. They're still better than the teams I eliminated in my opinion. But yeah, Auburn is just about as bad of a loss as possible at this point.
-Anyone else have a shot with a run to their conference finals? Not really. Pitt, Bama might've stood a chance, but they both lost opening round. And I think Green Bay, Yale, Buffalo, UConn, UTEP don't have much of a shot as an at-large. But there's always the possibility of a bid thief! There's still a few lurking...
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Evaluating Bubble Teams' Paths to At-Large Bids
This is essentially the second part of yesterday's bracketology, which can be found here: http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/bracketology-week-18-mar-10.html. I'm going to be looking at each team on the bubble and seeing what they need to do to earn an at-large bid. In terms of the actual bracket, it remains unchanged from yesterday with the exception of officially locking in Gonzaga and Valparaiso, and swapping South Dakota St and St. Francis with North Dakota St and Robert Morris, and locking them in. The at-large situation remains basically unchanged, except that upon further review, BYU is probably a little safer than the last team in. I'd put them above Texas A&M and Purdue at this point, making them an 11 seed. Now that we know where we're starting, let's see how the bubble looks.
First of all, it's important to know how many spots are realistically available. There are 68 teams in the tournament, and 32 are decided by automatic bids. That leaves 36 spots for at-large bids. I would say that in my recent bracket, every team in the top nine seeds and Davidson, the first 10 seed, are locks for the tournament. That's 37 teams. However, ten of those teams are currently leading conferences, so there's 27 more teams. 36-27= 9, so there are nine remaining spots. I believe there are 22 teams with a possibility of getting those spots. They are as follows:
Current 10 seeds: Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
Current 11 seeds: LSU, Temple, Texas, BYU
Current 12 seeds: Texas A&M, Purdue
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Barely Hanging: Richmond, Stanford, Vanderbilt
Current Auto-bids if they lose their conference tournament: #11 Boise St, #12 Stephen F. Austin
So those are the teams I think stand a chance at claiming the last few spots. 20 schools playing for nine spots, plus two more if they don't get auto-bids. However, the tough part is that as I talked about a couple days ago in "Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?" http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-conference-tournaments-bad-for.html, there are potential bid thieves who may shrink that magic number of nine even lower, making the bubble race ever the tighter and more difficult to decide who makes it in and who doesn't.
The first two teams on the list are Colorado St, and Oklahoma St, and I'd say both of them are looking at 90+% odds at making the field. It's going to be really difficult for them not to make the field, so much so that a win for either in their conference tournament would make them a lock. Colorado St has Fresno St in their first round, and should easily win. However, if they lose, and a lot of other people win, and the bid thieves take a few spots, it's feasible that they could find themselves closer to the bubble. However, I think that even in a down year for the Mountain West, 13-5 is no joke. They're a 26 win team with an RPI of 26, which in a power conference would make them a top 5 seed no doubt. For proof, see Notre Dame, a 26-5 (same record as Colorado St) RPI 24 team that I have as a 3. The point is, in my book they're a lock, but I'm a tad unsure of the committee, which has them as the top team on the bubble.
Oklahoma St had me genuinely scared for a while, and I thought they easily could have been the next Texas when they went on their four game losing streak in the second half of February, but by beating TCU and finishing 8-10 in the Big 12, they saved themselves from being a team walking the line of in and out. They get #15 Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, and while a win would certainly do the job, even a respectable loss should keep them safe.
Then we have the two SEC teams in very similar positions, Ole Miss and LSU. The Rebels are trending downwards after losing three of their last four, while LSU put themselves in good position with a win over #21 Arkansas to finish the regular season. A win would put each of these teams in, but while a loss would be okay for Colorado St and Oklahoma St, an opening round loss would put these teams in danger.
The Temple Owls may suffer a bit in the eyes of the committee because while the American Conference is solid and is probably a 3-bid league, they don't have the depth of a major conference. So while they finished the year with three wins over Houston, ECU, and UConn, none of them are that good. Temple holds the four seed in the conference tournament and will play the five seed Memphis. Temple is the first team that actually needs to win their opening round matchup. If they don't, it will be a matter of how much the committee values a 25-point win over Kansas, because it's by far their best win.
Texas should be rewarded for salvaging a season that once looked to be long gone. By winning their last two games against Baylor and Kansas St, they went from the first four out into the last four in, and as long as they beat Texas Tech, they will be in good position to advance, because they'll have an RPI around 40, a top 15 SOS number in the hardest conferences, 20 wins, and only one loss outside of the RPI top 50, which was to fellow bubble team Stanford. By numbers alone, the Longhorns look good.
BYU has no more games to play, but their away win against Gonzaga near the end of the regular season singlehandedly put them into good standing. BYU is a strong team with a few great players in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, that any team would be scared of in the Big Dance. All they lacked was a signature win, and that's what they got. They can't lose any more games, so they can't play themselves out of the tournament. They've done well getting on the right side of the bubble, but anything can happen now that their fate is in other teams' hands.
Texas A&M is in a difficult position because typically 20-win teams from traditionally strong conferences would be feeling pretty comfortable, but for a team in a potential 6-bid league, they haven't really beaten anyone. Their only wins against potential tournament teams came in a sweep of LSU. Besides that, their next highest RPI victory is #76 Florida, and they have a losing record. They absolutely must beat Auburn, and then will play LSU. If they complete the Tiger trifecta, they'll be dancing. Any less and I don't think it happens.
Purdue has been confusing for their last couple months because of the clash of their great conference record and 219 non-conference SOS. However, after losing two of three down the stretch they're going to need to make a statement in the conference tournament or be passed up. It'd be a lot easier if they hadn't lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb...they'll probably play Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals, and it's a must win for sure. Too bad Iowa's a great team, and Purdue can't make it without a win.
-------------------------------------------------The Bubble--------------------------------------------
UCLA looked hopeless for the first half of the season, but were jumpstarted after knocking off Utah. The Bruins have been up and down since then, and have won their last three since losing the two prior. They're a true bubble team, in a decent conference with decent numbers, a 12-loss record, but a couple good wins. They need to beat USC, but that might not be enough. The only problem is that their potential semifinal matchup is against Arizona. I don't think they can win that game, and I think they'll end up in the first four out on Selection Sunday.
Miami (Fl) is testing how far a win over Duke can carry a bubble team. Duke and NC State are their best wins, but they could've been in much better position if they could've beaten Virginia, Notre Dame, or Louisville, all of whom they played close. 20 and 28 point home losses to Georgia Tech and Eastern Kentucky aren't helping the cause, either. Ok, let's face it, if those two losses don't happen their in the field. They must beat Virginia Tech, and then they'll probably need to beat Notre Dame as well.
Indiana was an 8 seed in my first bracketology, but they've lost 8 of 12 down the stretch, and are in free fall. To save their year, they will need to beat both Northwestern and a really good Maryland team. It might seem unfair, but with so many teams competing for a limited number of spots, if they don't go deep, someone else will.
Old Dominion would probably just be best winning the Conference-USA tournament, as they have the best shot of any bubble team in winning their tourney. They were a solid middle-seed when conference play started, but silly losses have put them in their position. The issue is that I'm not sure the committee will give C-USA a second bid. They'd need at least a trip to the title game to stand a chance, but if they want to just win it, that'd be fine too. Remember, any of these teams can just win their tourney and get in automatically.
At this point as we head into the next four out, everyone needs to run deep. Tulsa would've been a lot better off had they not dropped their last two games, but in their defense they were against Cincinnati and SMU, the conference's two best squads. They'll have to get revenge on Cincinnati and beat them in the American semis. If they make the finals, they'll have a case to plead. Otherwise, move over.
It's really unfortunate that Belmont had to sink Murray St. They never lost in conference play, but because they lost in the tournament, there's not much to talk about. They have a strong record, but they haven't really beaten anyone. Do they deserve a spot? Yes, they are by far the Ohio Valley's best team. But, on paper basically every other bubble team has them beat. If a good amount of the teams above them fall in the opening round of their tournaments, Murray St could sneak up and be in the discussion. But for now, probably not.
If Illinois beats Michigan (which is a must), they then must play Wisconsin. There's good news and bad news with that. The bad is that they play Wisconsin. The good is that Wisconsin is such a strong team that if the Illini find a way to win, they can move way up and probably in the field- even if they lose in the semifinals. A win over Wisconsin would carry that much weight.
For Rhode Island, Richmond, Stanford, and Vanderbilt, the message is simple. Win the tournament. If not, make the finals and pray. That's the situation they're all in. Stanford absolutely fell apart, losing seven of ten when they appeared to be a tournament team at one point in time. Rhode Island are lacking any quality wins, and Richmond and Vandy have come out of nowhere but still have work to do.
And then there's Boise St and Stephen F. Austin, the current auto-bids that could win at-large with a loss in their conference tournaments. Boise has a much, much higher chance of getting in, as they come from a multiple-bid league (the Mountain West) and have a pretty strong resume overall. If they don't win their tournament, the bubble would actually expand by one spot should San Diego St or Colorado St win (the two most likely teams), but Boise St would probably just take an at-large since they were the regular season champions. They're ranked right now, and have swept San Diego St. I think Boise probably gets in one way or the other.
And then there's SFA. Last year, a very similar SFA team beat VCU in March Madness. Now they're back, and have the best resume out of the strong 1-bid league teams (Murray St, Iona, Harvard, etc). They are 27-4, and three of their losses have come to very good teams, Northern Iowa (an overtime loss), Baylor, and Xavier. They've got three top-100 wins, and an RPI of 46 which puts them slightly above the average bubble team in that category. They boast great offensive numbers, ranking top 15 in points scored, #1 in assists in all of college basketball, and a top 10 field goal percentage. This is an experienced team, and if any team from a traditional one-bid league gets in, it'd be them although the odds aren't great.
That's the overview of the bubble right now. Over the next few days, many teams will play themselves in, and more will play themselves out. Enjoy the madness.
First of all, it's important to know how many spots are realistically available. There are 68 teams in the tournament, and 32 are decided by automatic bids. That leaves 36 spots for at-large bids. I would say that in my recent bracket, every team in the top nine seeds and Davidson, the first 10 seed, are locks for the tournament. That's 37 teams. However, ten of those teams are currently leading conferences, so there's 27 more teams. 36-27= 9, so there are nine remaining spots. I believe there are 22 teams with a possibility of getting those spots. They are as follows:
Current 10 seeds: Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
Current 11 seeds: LSU, Temple, Texas, BYU
Current 12 seeds: Texas A&M, Purdue
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Barely Hanging: Richmond, Stanford, Vanderbilt
Current Auto-bids if they lose their conference tournament: #11 Boise St, #12 Stephen F. Austin
So those are the teams I think stand a chance at claiming the last few spots. 20 schools playing for nine spots, plus two more if they don't get auto-bids. However, the tough part is that as I talked about a couple days ago in "Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?" http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-conference-tournaments-bad-for.html, there are potential bid thieves who may shrink that magic number of nine even lower, making the bubble race ever the tighter and more difficult to decide who makes it in and who doesn't.
The first two teams on the list are Colorado St, and Oklahoma St, and I'd say both of them are looking at 90+% odds at making the field. It's going to be really difficult for them not to make the field, so much so that a win for either in their conference tournament would make them a lock. Colorado St has Fresno St in their first round, and should easily win. However, if they lose, and a lot of other people win, and the bid thieves take a few spots, it's feasible that they could find themselves closer to the bubble. However, I think that even in a down year for the Mountain West, 13-5 is no joke. They're a 26 win team with an RPI of 26, which in a power conference would make them a top 5 seed no doubt. For proof, see Notre Dame, a 26-5 (same record as Colorado St) RPI 24 team that I have as a 3. The point is, in my book they're a lock, but I'm a tad unsure of the committee, which has them as the top team on the bubble.
Oklahoma St had me genuinely scared for a while, and I thought they easily could have been the next Texas when they went on their four game losing streak in the second half of February, but by beating TCU and finishing 8-10 in the Big 12, they saved themselves from being a team walking the line of in and out. They get #15 Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, and while a win would certainly do the job, even a respectable loss should keep them safe.
Then we have the two SEC teams in very similar positions, Ole Miss and LSU. The Rebels are trending downwards after losing three of their last four, while LSU put themselves in good position with a win over #21 Arkansas to finish the regular season. A win would put each of these teams in, but while a loss would be okay for Colorado St and Oklahoma St, an opening round loss would put these teams in danger.
The Temple Owls may suffer a bit in the eyes of the committee because while the American Conference is solid and is probably a 3-bid league, they don't have the depth of a major conference. So while they finished the year with three wins over Houston, ECU, and UConn, none of them are that good. Temple holds the four seed in the conference tournament and will play the five seed Memphis. Temple is the first team that actually needs to win their opening round matchup. If they don't, it will be a matter of how much the committee values a 25-point win over Kansas, because it's by far their best win.
Texas should be rewarded for salvaging a season that once looked to be long gone. By winning their last two games against Baylor and Kansas St, they went from the first four out into the last four in, and as long as they beat Texas Tech, they will be in good position to advance, because they'll have an RPI around 40, a top 15 SOS number in the hardest conferences, 20 wins, and only one loss outside of the RPI top 50, which was to fellow bubble team Stanford. By numbers alone, the Longhorns look good.
BYU has no more games to play, but their away win against Gonzaga near the end of the regular season singlehandedly put them into good standing. BYU is a strong team with a few great players in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, that any team would be scared of in the Big Dance. All they lacked was a signature win, and that's what they got. They can't lose any more games, so they can't play themselves out of the tournament. They've done well getting on the right side of the bubble, but anything can happen now that their fate is in other teams' hands.
Texas A&M is in a difficult position because typically 20-win teams from traditionally strong conferences would be feeling pretty comfortable, but for a team in a potential 6-bid league, they haven't really beaten anyone. Their only wins against potential tournament teams came in a sweep of LSU. Besides that, their next highest RPI victory is #76 Florida, and they have a losing record. They absolutely must beat Auburn, and then will play LSU. If they complete the Tiger trifecta, they'll be dancing. Any less and I don't think it happens.
Purdue has been confusing for their last couple months because of the clash of their great conference record and 219 non-conference SOS. However, after losing two of three down the stretch they're going to need to make a statement in the conference tournament or be passed up. It'd be a lot easier if they hadn't lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb...they'll probably play Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals, and it's a must win for sure. Too bad Iowa's a great team, and Purdue can't make it without a win.
-------------------------------------------------The Bubble--------------------------------------------
UCLA looked hopeless for the first half of the season, but were jumpstarted after knocking off Utah. The Bruins have been up and down since then, and have won their last three since losing the two prior. They're a true bubble team, in a decent conference with decent numbers, a 12-loss record, but a couple good wins. They need to beat USC, but that might not be enough. The only problem is that their potential semifinal matchup is against Arizona. I don't think they can win that game, and I think they'll end up in the first four out on Selection Sunday.
Miami (Fl) is testing how far a win over Duke can carry a bubble team. Duke and NC State are their best wins, but they could've been in much better position if they could've beaten Virginia, Notre Dame, or Louisville, all of whom they played close. 20 and 28 point home losses to Georgia Tech and Eastern Kentucky aren't helping the cause, either. Ok, let's face it, if those two losses don't happen their in the field. They must beat Virginia Tech, and then they'll probably need to beat Notre Dame as well.
Indiana was an 8 seed in my first bracketology, but they've lost 8 of 12 down the stretch, and are in free fall. To save their year, they will need to beat both Northwestern and a really good Maryland team. It might seem unfair, but with so many teams competing for a limited number of spots, if they don't go deep, someone else will.
Old Dominion would probably just be best winning the Conference-USA tournament, as they have the best shot of any bubble team in winning their tourney. They were a solid middle-seed when conference play started, but silly losses have put them in their position. The issue is that I'm not sure the committee will give C-USA a second bid. They'd need at least a trip to the title game to stand a chance, but if they want to just win it, that'd be fine too. Remember, any of these teams can just win their tourney and get in automatically.
At this point as we head into the next four out, everyone needs to run deep. Tulsa would've been a lot better off had they not dropped their last two games, but in their defense they were against Cincinnati and SMU, the conference's two best squads. They'll have to get revenge on Cincinnati and beat them in the American semis. If they make the finals, they'll have a case to plead. Otherwise, move over.
It's really unfortunate that Belmont had to sink Murray St. They never lost in conference play, but because they lost in the tournament, there's not much to talk about. They have a strong record, but they haven't really beaten anyone. Do they deserve a spot? Yes, they are by far the Ohio Valley's best team. But, on paper basically every other bubble team has them beat. If a good amount of the teams above them fall in the opening round of their tournaments, Murray St could sneak up and be in the discussion. But for now, probably not.
If Illinois beats Michigan (which is a must), they then must play Wisconsin. There's good news and bad news with that. The bad is that they play Wisconsin. The good is that Wisconsin is such a strong team that if the Illini find a way to win, they can move way up and probably in the field- even if they lose in the semifinals. A win over Wisconsin would carry that much weight.
For Rhode Island, Richmond, Stanford, and Vanderbilt, the message is simple. Win the tournament. If not, make the finals and pray. That's the situation they're all in. Stanford absolutely fell apart, losing seven of ten when they appeared to be a tournament team at one point in time. Rhode Island are lacking any quality wins, and Richmond and Vandy have come out of nowhere but still have work to do.
And then there's Boise St and Stephen F. Austin, the current auto-bids that could win at-large with a loss in their conference tournaments. Boise has a much, much higher chance of getting in, as they come from a multiple-bid league (the Mountain West) and have a pretty strong resume overall. If they don't win their tournament, the bubble would actually expand by one spot should San Diego St or Colorado St win (the two most likely teams), but Boise St would probably just take an at-large since they were the regular season champions. They're ranked right now, and have swept San Diego St. I think Boise probably gets in one way or the other.
And then there's SFA. Last year, a very similar SFA team beat VCU in March Madness. Now they're back, and have the best resume out of the strong 1-bid league teams (Murray St, Iona, Harvard, etc). They are 27-4, and three of their losses have come to very good teams, Northern Iowa (an overtime loss), Baylor, and Xavier. They've got three top-100 wins, and an RPI of 46 which puts them slightly above the average bubble team in that category. They boast great offensive numbers, ranking top 15 in points scored, #1 in assists in all of college basketball, and a top 10 field goal percentage. This is an experienced team, and if any team from a traditional one-bid league gets in, it'd be them although the odds aren't great.
That's the overview of the bubble right now. Over the next few days, many teams will play themselves in, and more will play themselves out. Enjoy the madness.
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