Bracketology Week 18 (Mar. 10)

This Championship Week edition of Connorackerology bases its bracket on games played through Mar. 9

     Five days.  That's it.  In just five days the selection committee will make the final call on which schools make March Madness.  That means for the teams on the bubble, there's only a couple games left to make an impression.  At this stage, wins are huge, and losses are killer.  Bubble teams simply can not afford to go down in the opening round of their conference tournament, because if they do, they'll earn a one-way ticket to the NIT, the national invitational tournament, or as I like to call it, the Not In Tournament.

     Teams bolded and underlined in the bracket represent teams who have already punched their automatic bid into the field.  If a #1 seed in a conference tournament has already lost, the bold team for that conference will be the highest remaining seed in the tournament.

1s: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova

2s: Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Maryland

3s: Kansas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Louisville

4s: Oklahoma, Baylor, Wichita St, Iowa St

5s: Utah, West Virginia, SMU, Butler

6s: North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence

7s: Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan St, VCU
8s: St. John's, San Diego St, Dayton, Georgia
9s: Xavier, NC State, Oregon, Cincinnati
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: LSU, Temple, Boise St, Texas, Texas A&M
12s: Purdue, BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, Georgia St
14s: UC Davis, Northeastern, South Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, St. Francis BRK, Texas Southern

On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Need a Miracle: Richmond, Green Bay, Buffalo, Vanderbilt

Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
SEC: 6
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Pac 12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
WCC: 2
21 Conferences: 1

Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?

     We're midway through Championship Week, and many teams have already won their spot in the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament.  Conference tournament week is a huge deal, as it determines roughly half the March Madness and can make or break many teams' resumes as they vie for the at large spots.  However, does this prelude to the Big Dance improve the sport as a whole, or does it do more bad than good?
     It really depends on who you ask, but generally conference tournaments hurt good teams, especially mid-majors, while coming to the rescue of teams who have no business playing in the postseason.  Their are three main reasons why this is the case, and why conference tournaments can be a detriment to the sport.
     The main reason why this happens is because roughly two-thirds of conferences are what are referred to as one bid leagues.  This means that 95% of the time only one team from these conferences will go dancing in March.  As a whole the conference is too weak to receive multiple bids in the committee's eyes, and that only changes when a team has an exceptional record, losing no more than a couple games in the entire season, and then loses in the conference tournament.  But even then, those teams don't usually make the field.
     You could take my word that this is the case, but here are a few times this has happened in just the last few seasons.  In 2012, a 27-6 Drexel team missed the tournament.  In 2013, 26-6 Louisiana Tech and 27-4 Stephen F. Austin missed the field.  Just last year, a 24-6 Green Bay team viewed as a favorite to upset a big name team didn't make the final cut, along with 27-6 Toledo and 26-6 Southern Miss.  These teams dominated their conferences, and then because of one loss, lost everything they worked for, and went to the NIT.  Keep in mind those six teams were only from the last few years, and there were even more 25 win schools I didn't mention.  This year has already claimed a victim.  When the former #25 Murray State lost the Ohio Valley championship game on Saturday to Belmont, it's odds of making the tournament were severely reduced.  They still have a chance, but more than likely, the 27-5 Racers won't be racing into the Big Dance.
     The next way conference tournaments may harm the sport goes along with my last point.   Conference tournaments make March Madness less competitive.  Could you imagine what would happen if that these talented mid-major teams made the big dance instead of the far worse teams that took their place away (with the exception of Drexel, who lost to VCU)?  The tournament would be even more competitive, and we'd be seeing even more potential cinderella squads than we already do.  Can you imagine seeing 14 seeds with the skill of 12s and 13s?  Because that's the kind of situation we'd have if the best team from each conference made the field.  There would be more potential for upsets, and many more good games in general.
     However, the way it currently is, any team can win three or four games in their conference tournament and make March Madness, even if they had zero wins prior to the tournament.  While that's never happened, it's technically possible.  Here are a few of the worst teams to make the tournament in recent years, along with the first-place teams in those divisions that failed to make it because of a bad team's lucky run.  In 2014, Cal Poly made the tournament at a disgusting 13-19 over a 23-11 UC Irvine.  In 2013, Liberty, with a horrendous 15-20 record, went dancing instead of 19-12 Charleston Southern.  It doesn't happen every year, but many times teams with losing records actually make the field.  Just an hour before I write this, now 28-6 Wofford barely escaped with the Southern Conference bid against a Furman team who will end its season 11-22.  Furman was actually the worst team in the conference in the regular season (5-13 in the league), but they somehow managed to win three games in the tournament, and only fell by three points to the Wofford Terriers, a future 12 or 13 seed.  See?  It happens more than you think.  And although I don't know for sure, I'd venture to say the #1 seed only wins the conference tournament a maximum 50% of the time.  Probably less.
     Last but not least, the third way conference tournaments hurt college basketball is through what are known as "bid thieves", and in some ways are even worse than teams that steal a bid from their conference's strong mid-major.  These teams steal bids, but in a far more indirect, insidious way.  These are the guys who are to blame when experts talk about a "bursting bubble."
     Bid thieves typically come from conferences that receive multiple bids into the NCAA tournament.  They win their conference tournament, earning an automatic bid, even though they are undeserving.  Here's the catch, though: since they come from a good conference, the teams from that conference that were supposed to make the tournament still do, but now the team that was supposed to take the auto-bid takes earns an at-large instead.  Now there is one less at-large bid up for grabs, and the bubble shrinks.  The more times this happens in a year, the more bubble teams lose their spot in the field.  Regardless of how they play, if they don't get their automatic bid, they'll see their at-large hopes vanish before their vary eyes.  Teams this year that could play that spoiler role include UConn, Memphis, Kansas State, Pitt, Michigan, Florida, and Wyoming among many others, but as ESPN's Eamonn Brennan has said, "it could be anyone.  Anywhere."
    But surely there's a lot of good that comes from conference tournaments too, right?  Of course.  If there wasn't, we would've done away with them a while ago.  First off, they're really exciting.  The fact that anyone can win makes every game crucial, especially with bubble teams and teams from lower conferences.  It puts the spotlight on these teams and really sets the stage for the real tournament.  It also gives the bad teams something to play for.  There would be no point for teams with no realistic chance at winning their conference to keep playing late in the season, but with conference tournaments, everyone feels they have a chance, even though it basically turns the entire regular season into a fight for conference tournament seeding in lower conferences.  Lastly, conference tournaments generate a lot of revenue, and we all know the people in power see nothing but green.
     What would I do?  It's difficult, because both sides have some good points and make sense.  However, personally I believe all conferences should switch to the system the Ivy League uses, where the regular season champion earns the automatic bid, and any tie is decided by a championship game between the tied teams.  This way the best team from every conference advances, and good teams don't miss the tournament like Iona, who just fell to Manhattan, and at 26-8 has little to no chance of claiming a second bid for the MAAC.  At least at 19-13 Manhattan is a decent team with a strong leader in Emmy Andujar.
     But wait!  Doesn't that cut a week or two from the season?  What happens to that time?  That one's easy.  Just add a couple more non-conference games into the schedule, and everything should work out fine.  Personally, I would throw these games in the middle of conference play, to give bubble teams and mid-majors opportunities to strengthen their resumes right as people start to seriously talk about bracketology and who's on what side of the bubble.  ESPN ran something called Bracket Buster Weekend up to 2013 where there was a weekend when all the top mid-majors played each other to improve their resumes and get national attention.  This would be kind of like that, except it would last a week or two, and any team could schedule games in that time, not just mid-majors.  Oh, and of course it wouldn't be run by ESPN, the teams should get to decide their own opponents.
     So, what do you think about these tournaments?  Should we keep them, modify them, or get rid of them altogether?  Comments and feedback are welcome.
     Connor

NCAAB Conference Tournament Picks

     I know #25 Murray State already lost to Belmont last night, earning the Bruins the first bid to the NCAA tournament, and that Coastal Carolina just took down the Big South bid, but there are still 30 conferences with their auto-bids undecided and 29 conference tournaments (the Ivy League gives their bid to the regular season champion, and this year it will go down to a tiebreaker game between Harvard and Yale).  Here are my predictions for the conference tournaments for every other league.

American: SMU
American East: Albany
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: North Florida
Atlantic 10: Dayton
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Villanova
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big Ten: Maryland
Big West: UC Davis
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Boise St
Northeast: St. Francis (NY)
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac-12: Arizona
Patriot: Lafayette
SEC: Kentucky
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: South Dakota St
SWAC: Texas Southern
WAC: New Mexico St
WCC: Gonzaga

Introducing: Top Level Madness 2015

     This is a quick update to let everyone know my plans for March Madness this year.  Simply put, it's going to be crazy.  Starting today and going through the day before March Madness starts (Mar. 18), I will be posting something college basketball themed EVERY DAY.  I know this seems crazy, and that I'm setting a really high expectation for myself, but trust me, I already have it all planned.  This might mean bracketology, a podcast, an article, or predictions, so be sure to stay tuned daily to see what I'm throwing out there.  Once the tournament starts, I'll be giving my thoughts after the conclusion of every round, although knowing me I'll probably have a few rants about my bracket and upsets along the way.
     I'm super excited about March Madness this year, as it is always my favorite event of the year and I'm more thrilled than ever to see what madness 2015 has in store.
     Stay tuned,
     Connor

Connoracketology Week 17 (Mar. 4)

     This edition of Connoracketology uses games played through March 3rd to determine its seed rankings.

     The bubble has shrunk.  It's the phrase no one wants fighting for the last few tournament spots wants to hear.  But that's exactly what has happened.  By taking the lead in their respective conferences, Boise State and Tulsa (two previous bubble teams) have automatic bids at the moment.  This means that there are two fewer at-large spots to fight for, meaning no one can afford to lose, or they will fall out of the field.  The situation is great for Boise and Tulsa, but for a team like BYU, who just knocked off Gonzaga, it means they still aren't in the field.  They would have passed Tulsa had they not had an auto-bid.
     Texas saved their season with a come from behind victory over Baylor, but it might be too little too late for the Longhorns, 7-10 in Big 12 play.  They might not be the only team that threw their chances away in Big-12 play either.  If Oklahoma State loses against TCU, that would make 5 straight losses for the Cowboys, and could put them in the same situation Texas is currently in.
     We're getting ever so close to Selection Sunday, now only 11 days away, so I have much more to talk about.  However, that will have to wait until the next edition of Bracket Breakdown on Youtube, which I will be releasing tomorrow.  For now, here's the bracket.

Week 17- Mar. 4

1s:  Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova

2s:  Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas

3s:  Maryland, Wichita St, Notre Dame, Utah

4s:  Northern Iowa, Baylor, Louisville, Oklahoma

5s:  Iowa St, North Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia

6s:  SMU, Ohio State, Providence, Georgetown

7s:  Butler, VCU, Iowa, Dayton

8s:  Georgia, St. John’s, Michigan St., San Diego St

9s:  Ole Miss, Oklahoma St., Xavier, Texas A&M

10s:  Colorado St, Cincinnati, NC State, Oregon

11s:  Indiana, LSU, Temple, Purdue, Davidson, Boise St,

12s:  Tulsa, Murray St., Harvard, Stephen F. Austin

13s:  Iona, Wofford, Valparaiso, Louisiana Tech

14s:  Central Michigan, Georgia St, UC Davis, South Dakota St

15s:  William & Mary, NC Central, High Point, New Mexico St

16s:  Albany, St, Francis, North Florida, Sacramento St, Bucknell, Texas Southern

Entered the field: Boise St., Davidson

Left the field: Texas, Stanford

On the Outside Looking In

First Four Out: BYU, UCLA, Texas, Stanford

Next Four Out: Illinois, Old Dominion, Miami (Fl), Rhode Island

Barely Hanging: Pittsburgh, Richmond, Connecticut, Buffalo

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten: 7

ACC: 6

Big East: 6

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

American: 4

Atlantic-10: 3

Mountain West: 3

Pac-12: 3

Missouri Valley: 2

22 Conferences: 1