Tuesday, January 20, 2015

"Deflate-gate" is a Joke

      UPDATE: Within half an hour of the release of this blog, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported that 11 of the Patriots' 12 game balls were under inflated by 2 psi.  This report is a total game-changer, and while the Patriots say they will comply fully with the NFL's investigation, it doesn't exactly look great for them.  Since it is nearly all the balls that have been found to be deflated, it seems extremely likely that ball-deflating did occur, although as always the Patriots are innocent until proven guilty, as we still do not know how these footballs came to be deflated.  This is a great example of how a single piece of information can turn a situation on its head.  While I stand by my point that the Patriots would've won the game regardless, this does mean that there could be upcoming punishment facing the Patriots.  This means that for the third time this postseason, the result of a game is highly disputed, and now the Patriots will be playing the role of the bad guy in the upcoming Super Bowl.
     There will be more to come, as I will continue giving my opinions as the NFL's investigation proceeds and we come to know how these footballs were deflated.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     There was a brief period of time following the NFL conference championship games when people  were actually talking about the games.  All the talk was about how the Packers managed the fourth quarter horribly and did just about everything possible to let the Seahawks back in the game, basically begging to go down in flames.  Then there was the news of Richard Sherman's injury, how the Patriots demolished the Colts, how the Seahawks would be looking to be the first team in back-to-back years to win the Super Bowl since the Patriots ten years ago, and how Tom Brady would be looking for his NFL record-tying fourth Super Bowl victory in his record sixth start.
     But like I said, all of this lasted for only a few hours until the first reports came out of an NFL investigation, looking into whether or not the New England Patriots intentionally deflated game balls in order to gain an unfair advantage over the Colts.  Upon seeing this for the first time, I immediately cringed and thought to myself, "great, all we need is another Patriots controversy".  And then I actually looked specifically at the allegations and the circumstances surrounding it, and realized this: deflate-gate (which, is actually a pretty awesome scandal name), is a huge joke.  So now, I am going to explain why this supposed cheating scandal a) had no effect on the game, b) would have been extremely difficult to accomplish, and c) is absolutely incapable of being proven.
     First off, let’s go over basic procedure for the inflation and monitoring of footballs.  On gameday, each team provides 24 footballs to the referees roughly two hours prior to the start of the game, where the referees inspect each ball.  Every football must have an air pressure of between 12.5 and 13.5 psi, as well as a weight of between 14 and 15 ounces.  Additionally, the teams may “break in” the footballs to suit each individual quarterback’s preferences, such as trying to smooth the surface of the ball.  This is legal as long as the ball’s shape remains about the same.  Following this, each team’s specific balls are returned to the team to be rotated throughout the game.  The Colts claim that after the balls had been inspected by the referees, an equipment manager let out some of the air from at least one Patriot football, making it an illegal ball.  The advantage in using a lighter ball is that in inclement weather, the ball is easier to grip, throw, and catch, which would seem to give the Patriots an advantage.
     However, it would give anything remotely similar to an advantage that would have made the game a lot closer than it was.  The Colts lost the game 45-7, and as ESPN’s Ron Jaworski put it, the Patriots could’ve won the game using a Frisbee.  They were just that dominant, basically throughout the course of the game.  The Patriots wreaked havoc in the run game with running back LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 148 yards and three touchdowns.  While a lighter ball would’ve made the ball easier to throw and catch, it shouldn’t have any effect on the running game.  It also should have no effect on the Colts offense.  Since the Colts used separate balls from the Patriots (each team’s balls are marked with their team name), the Colts have no excuse for only managing to score seven points in the game.  They couldn’t get anything accomplished on that side of the ball and Andrew Luck played the worst game of his career.  Additionally, the incident where the Colts reported that the game ball the Patriots were using felt light was late in the second quarter.  That ball wasn’t used in the second half, and in that half the Patriots blew the game out of the water, outscoring the Colts 28-0.
     Let’s talk how about the Colts became suspicious of the Patriots.  After a Tom Brady interception late in the second quarter, Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson (the interceptor) thought that the ball felt a little light.  That’s it.  The expert insight on the air pressure of the football comes from a linebacker, who rarely is the one touching the football.  Why would Jackson of all people be able to tell the slight difference between a legal and illegal ball?  Sounds a little fishy to me.  Especially since before every play, the referees have to touch the ball to place it at the line of scrimmage.  Usually two referees hold the ball between plays, and these guys actually know what the balls should feel like and are the ones who inspected the balls.  So naturally, one would think they would notice if a ball felt light, and would check the air pressure or throw the ball out altogether (something referees actually do frequently when for whatever reason they believe a ball is not in ideal playing condition).
     So how would the Patriots be able to get away with this?  The referees check the balls before the game and before every play, so they would probably be able to spot any funny business.  Additionally, why would the Patriots even need to deflate their balls?  They were favorites to win the game, had home field advantage on their side, and from only the first few minutes of the game it seemed obvious that it was going to be the Patriots’ day and that there would be nothing stopping them.  Not to mention how extremely risky it would be if they got caught.  The Patriots are already notorious for spy-gate, and their image would get even worse if they were to get caught up in another scandal (too late).  Additionally, they would lose draft picks, and the Tom Brady/Belichick-era Patriots have been some of the most successful teams ever due largely in part for their ability to dominate the draft, always making smart trades and choosing the right players.
     The Patriots basically can’t get caught here, due to the actions taken directly after the ball in question was intercepted.  D’Qwell Jackson took the ball to the Colts sideline and explained that he thought the ball was light first to the equipment manager of the Colts, who then told coach Chuck Pagano, who then told the general manager, who then told the head referee about the ball situation.  In all the time required to do this, who’s not to say the Colts couldn’t have taken air out of the ball?  I’m no conspiracy theorist, but the possibility definitely seems to be there, especially considering a desperate team losing might try to use some underhanded tactics to keep their season alive.  Essentially, if no one from the Patriots admits to being involved with the deflating of footballs, and there is no video evidence of any such acts being performed, there is absolutely no way the Patriots can be considered guilty, and since I highly doubt a Patriot would spill the beans and there has been no talk of any evidence suggesting the Patriots did anything, in my mind they’re in the clear.
     The dumbest part about this is that I don’t even think the referees checked the air pressure of the ball in question.  At least no information of that nature has been released yet, and there’s the basis for this entire argument right there.  We can’t trust D’Qwell Jackson’s perception of what is or isn’t a light ball, we need numbers.  I have no idea why no one seems to even know the air pressure of that ball because the balls should’ve been rechecked at halftime if there was any suspicion of deflated balls.
     At the end of the day, there is absolutely NO story here, whatsoever, period.  The media, as usual, has blown something completely out of proportion, when there is nothing to suggest anything wrong had been done.
     What do I think actually happened?  It’s pretty simple.  The ball the Patriots were using was probably a little light.  Obviously, in these conditions the Patriots wanted to use as light a ball as possible, so they probably inflated their balls to the minimum 12.5 psi.  Then in the cold weather, the pressure of the ball probably reduced slightly, making it just a tad under 12.5 psi.  This isn’t a huge deal, and isn’t really detectable by referees.  However, to D’Qwell Jackson, the ball may have felt a little on the light side because in good conditions, the ball is probably closer to 13.5 psi.  He may have noticed a slight difference, and decided to tell people about it, knowing that with the Patriots previous allegations of cheating, he might be able to get the Patriots in some kind of trouble.
     The only reason any of this ever happens is because of the Patriots’ notorious spy-gate scandal, which even to this day some fans are reluctant to leave in the past.  People pounce on the bad reputation of Coach Belichick and always try to make something out of nothing, and in this case trying to fabricate a huge scandal when there isn’t any evidence to support it.
     So there you have it.  The deflate-gate scandal is nothing but a farce, intended to stir up trouble where it isn’t necessary, and until I hear anything that points otherwise, the whole situation is absolutely meaningless.  Feel free to move on with your lives, and to all the conspiracy theorists and Patriots haters, try again next time, because God knows you will.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Conference Championship Reactions

     Now that both of the conference championship games have been played,  it's time for me to give my first impressions on the games, while everything's still fresh in my memory.
     Wow.  That's the first word that comes to mind when thinking of game one of the day.  In one of the most improbable comebacks in postseason history, and what I'd call the best postseason finish since Colts vs. Chiefs last season, the Seahawks came back from a 16-0 halftime deficit, and a 19-7 deficit with three minutes left to take the lead, only to have the Packers make a game tying final-minute drive to send the game to overtime at 22 apiece.
     None of this should've happened, however.  The Seahawks turned the ball over five times, and the Packers were only able to put up 13 points off these mistakes.  Mason Crosby kept the Packers in the game by making all five of his field goals, but his first two kicks were essentially extra points, from 18 and 19 yards away.  In big games like conference championships, and especially on the road, and even more so when you're playing the best defense in the game, it is essential that you put up touchdowns.  Even one touchdown instead of a field goal could've ended the game much sooner.
     On the Seahawks side, boy did they start out slow.  It almost seemed as if the offense didn't know what team they played for by all the turnovers and miscommunications.  Russell Wilson didn't even complete a pass until their was three minutes left in the first half, and then proceeded to throw a third interception before halftime.  The Packers were going into their home field and absolutely wrecking them.  The only reason they were able to stay anywhere's near contention in the fourth quarter was the defense.  Four times the Packers were in goal to go situations in just the first quarter, and the Seahawks were able to force two field goals along with Richard Sherman snatching his second interception of the postseason.
     Something needed to change quickly, and the big momentum play that began to change the game was the fake field goal touchdown scored by the Seahawks in the middle of the third quarter.  The Seahawks, still down 16-0, could've elected to kick a field goal, but then they would still be down 13 points, and momentum would have probably stayed with the Packers.  However, by making the risky call to go for it and succeeding, the 12th man was able to really get back in the game and the Packers began to get a little nervous, never really getting their groove back on offense.
     Still, it wasn't until the Seahawks gained possession of the ball with just under four minutes remaining that they had built on their previous touchdown.  In fact, they probably shouldn't've even gotten the ball back, but the Packers three-and-outed on both of their possessions late in the fourth while trying to kill time.
     From this point on, the Packers defense really couldn't do anything to stop the Seahawks, because it was time for Russell Wilson to stop being the Russell that had thrown four picks earlier in the game, easily his worst career game to that point, and become clutch Russ who leads the Seahawks to victory consistently.  Also not to be underestimated was Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch's contributions to the final two drives, with big yardage gains on each drive.  He finished with 157 yards and a touchdown
     But again, none of this occurs if the Seahawks can't miraculously recover an onside kick just prior to the two-minute warning.  The Seahawks scored rapidly once they had recovered the kick, putting up another six in under a minute, then proceeded to go for two and get it to improve the lead to 22-19, another crucial play the Seahawks don't win without.  If they fail and only take a 20-19 lead, the Packers ensuing drive gives them the 22-20 victory.  The Packers really shouldn't've allowed this conversion to succeed, and it really cost them big time.  They perfectly executed a blitz, chasing Russell Wilson all the way to the 20 yard-line where he finally just tossed the ball up near the goal line on the opposite side of the field, where Luke Willson bobbled and then caught the ball and walked in the end zone after poor defense from Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (although he did have two picks earlier in the game).
     Aaron Rodgers was able to lead a great one minute offense to get Mason Crosby a good field goal to tie the game and send it to overtime, but Seattle quickly scored a touchdown in overtime, completing the biggest comeback in Super Bowl era conference championship history, and surely leaving the Packers with a sour taste in their mouths, knowing one really got away from them.  You have to play good four all four quarters to beat Seattle in Seattle, and they struggled on both sides of the ball in the second half.
     The Patriots-Colts game went very similar to how I thought it would go.  I expected the Patriots to win this game pretty easily, despite most people expecting this to be the closer of the two games, but even I wasn't expecting the Patriots to have such an easy time offensively.  These guys were basically unstoppable, and the Colts especially couldn't stop LeGarrette Blount, who was plowing through defenders en route to 148 yards and 3 touchdowns.  That's the fifth straight game that the Patriots have had someone rush for triple digits against the Colts.
     As for Andrew Luck, the struggles only continued against the Patriots, as he falls to 0-4 in his career against Tom Brady.  Today set new lows for Luck, however, as he completed a horrendous 12 of 33 passes for a season low 126 yards and two interceptions.  Besides their touchdown drive, nothing came on offense.  In their sole scoring possession, the Colts gained 93 of their 208 offensive yards, essentially have their offense in just four minutes of the game.
     This game was basically over by the middle of the third quarter, and there wasn't much doubt in this one pretty much the whole way.  The Patriots had a complete performance, stellar on both sides of the ball, and definitely deserve to advance to Phoenix for the Super Bowl.
     The Patriots will now advance to their sixth Super Bowl in the Brady era, where they currently sit at 3-2, but haven't one a title in ten seasons.
     Now that these games are done, it's time to relax for a week before media week begins and all the talk of the sports world is shifted to the Super Bowl.
   

NFL Conference Championship Picks + Review of Preseason Picks

     The Super Bowl is only two weeks away, but before we get there are two conference championship games tomorrow to decide who will play for it all on February 1st in Phoenix.  The interesting thing about these matchups is that both games are rematches of games earlier in the season.  
     In the first week of the season, the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks hosted and defeated the Green Bay Packers 36-16.  Then in week 11, Tom Brady's Patriots went into Indianapolis to dominate Andrew Luck's Colts 42-20 in Jonas Gray's breakout game, where he rushed for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading to him being a top fantasy waiver wire pickup before only rushing for 80 yards the rest of the season.
     Before I get into my picks for the Super Bowl, I'm going to first see how me and my dad's preseason picks fared.  Before week 1 started, we podcasted and gave our predictions for the division winners along with Super Bowl predictions.  Additionally, if you didn't know, you can find my podcast at this link: http://kiwi6.com/artists/TopLevelPodcast.

     AFC East:
     Me: Patriots
     Dad: Patriots
     Actual: Patriots

     AFC North:
     Me: Steelers (they did make the playoffs though)
     Dad: Bengals
     Actual: Bengals

     AFC South:
     Me: Colts
     Dad: Colts
     Actual: Colts

     AFC West:
     Me: Broncos
     Dad: Broncos
     Actual: Broncos

     NFC East:
     Me: Eagles
     Dad: Eagles
     Actual: Cowboys

     NFC North:
     Me: Packers
     Dad: Bears (at 5-11 easily our worst pick)
     Actual: Packers

     NFC South:  (I labeled this division a juggernaut in the podcast.  Oh boy was that wrong, although many expected every team to be pretty good, I was far from the only one.  Additionally, everyone's surprise team to make the playoffs (the Bucs) currently hold the #1 pick).
     Me: Saints
     Dad: Saints
     Actual: Panthers 

     NFC West:
     Me: Seahawks
     Dad: 49ers
     Actual: Seahawks

     Overall:
     Me: 5/8
     Dad: 3/8

     Super Bowl Predictions:
     Me: Broncos over Saints
     Dad: Patriots over Eagles

     So it looks like I won the division picks, but my Super Bowl predictions definitely weren't on point.  My dad and I both had a Super Bowl team that missed the playoffs, but at least our winners managed to have strong seasons although Peyton Manning fell short again.  My dad definitely has a strong chance of nailing the Super Bowl champion.
     Alright, so who do I have advancing to the Super Bowl?  Well, before the playoffs started I had the Patriots beating the Packers in the Super Bowl, and since they've both made it this far, I have to stick with them.  That's just how I operate, I won't change my picks until they're out.
     Sure, the majority of people seem to believe that the Seahawks will advance to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season, and there's certainly good reason for that.  However, I do feel like if anyone is going to go into Seattle and win, it's going to be the Packers.  They simply have so many offensive weapons that when matched up against the incredible Seahawks defense they may be able to produce the few big plays they'll need to come out victorious.  Another reason I really like the Packers is that they led the league in turnover differential this season at +14.  As we all know, turnovers can drastically affect the outcome of a game, and they've been forcing on average one more turnover than they commit, which could give them a huge advantage if they're aggressive defense can come up with some big plays.  Interestingly enough, the second best team in terms of turnover differential at +12 is the Patriots, my other pick to advance to the Super Bowl.
     I feel pretty comfortable overall with my Patriots pick, and I think that regardless of how good Andrew Luck may be, a lot of great quarterbacks just seem to fall apart when they go into New England.  The weather might have an impact on the game, and Andrew Luck does commit far too many turnovers for me to like the Colts chances.  Their offense will also be hurt by the lack of Trent Richardson in the game, who did not make the trip for personal reasons.  On offense, the Patriots have been absolutely rolling for the majority of the season, and averaged 37 points per game at home during the regular season.  Additionally, the Patriots just seem to be Andrew Luck's kryptonite, as he is 0-3 against the Pats in his career thus far.  In my opinion, Tom Brady's quest for a forth ring will continue on to February where he will try to win his first ring since the 2004-05 season (and he's lucky the Giants aren't there to stop him again).
     Well, those are my picks.  Regardless of the outcome, both games should be very enjoyable to watch, and I hope you all are as excited as I am to see who will play for the Lombardi trophy.  

     

Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Round Predictions Podcast

     Hey everyone.  As promised, I'm back on the podcast again this week, this time with Luis as we go over all the NFL playoff games this week.
     Click this link to view the podcast.  http://kiwi6.com/artists/TopLevelPodcast/nfl-divisional-playoffs-1-9-15.
   
     Thanks,
     Connor

Friday, January 2, 2015

NFL Wild Card Predictions Podcast

     It's been a long time since the blog has seen a podcast, but what better time to revive it than for the NFL playoffs?  The podcast can be found here: http://kiwi6.com/artists/TopLevelPodcast/nfl-wild-card-podcast-1-2-15, and in it my dad and I discuss our picks for each of the four wild card round games taking place over the next few days, as well as give early Super Bowl predictions.
     Happy listening!
     Connor