My first ever experience with blogging (although I use the term loosely), came during February and March of 2010. During this time, I wrote 13 sports blogs to a list of email subscribers which started as just being my parents and grandparents, but grew to nearly 20 people, either family members or family friends. Back then, the "blogs" weren't nearly as insightful as they are now, and more or less took the form of news recaps, but looking back recently, I still found great joy in reading some of my earliest work.
Since I've been pretty busy with school starting and a couple big projects I hope to reveal very soon, I thought I'd take this opportunity to share one of my pieces, written back on March 4, 2010, just three days after my 11th birthday. I chose this one in particular because in it I talk about Jason Pierre-Paul, who the Giants would go on to draft later that year. It's funny to hear me write about a guy I ended up liking so much that I got his jersey (although his present finger situation is quite annoying to say the least). The intro is pretty irrelevant so I'll skip it, but otherwise, here's a look at my writing from a long, long time ago.
Connor
P.S. I'm well aware there's a couple mistakes in this piece, but I decided to leave it unedited. I found where I say "meat Jason Pierre-Paul to be particularly cringe-worthy, but what can I say? I was pretty young. Anyways, here you go.
Basketball first and on the up and rising is forward-center Andray Blatche. Averaging only 11 points and 6 rebounds a game; the last 3 games have been amazing. How about 26.7 points, 14 rebounds 4.3 assists and a 60% field goal percentage. He is only 23 and performing amazing, and will be a future star for the Wizards. Now that Kevin Martin is a Rocket, they have new hope in trying to catch a team for a spot in n the playoffs. Martin playing amazing since he got traded. The Cavs took down the Nets, making them 6-54, a win percentage of exactly ten right now. The worst record ever was by the 76ers and was 9-73, which means the Nets would have to win three of the next twenty two games to be able to tie for worst ever.
Ok here it is, the next part, the NFL. Meat Jason Pierre-Paul. He wants to be in the NFL and his gymnastics talent might really help him get there. He suddenly has increasing value to scouts after boasting and then doing 23 back flips in a row. He is all over it and on YouTube if you want to see. It may be trouble for Texan Steve Slaton. After having an amazing rookie season, his carelessness with the ball and sophomore slump lost him the starting roll and with the Texans desperately needing an RB, Steve can't feel comfortable.
Spring Training has been in play and they are actually doing some games against each other now, and the Phillies won a game against the Yankees, a rematch of the last world series with a different winner.
Nathan Green of Australia will finish in the lead of the first round of the Honda Classic Golf Tournament. He is 5 under with Camilo Villegas in a tie for second. A harder course for closer action! I have DJ Trahan and Anthony Kim for the win in this one. If that happens, I'll be surprised, though. How about last year’s winner Y.E. Yang at +9!? What a shocker!
One sentence on Hockey: they are debating whether or not to let NHL players participate in the Olympics in 2014, and the Olympics to come.
With Duke's loss to a Greivis Vasquez led Maryland team pushes Kansas St to a 1 seed and Duke to a two and Villanova a 3 seed for me. Already, some of the conference tournaments have started such as the Big South and Horizon league. Has anyone noticed how good UNLV is this year? In the Mountain West they are number 3 at 10-5, and overall 22 and 7 being a very good record considering that that is the record of 3 seed Ohio State right now. Expect a quick tourney exit from Purdue as I don't think they are good without Hummel. Maybe a second round exit for the Boilermakers without their injured star.
Another new sport is Tennis. Right now the Davis Cup is on and the Americans aren't in the best position. Okay, everybody, we are going to get killed. Tennis is one of those sports where every country seems to have a star and we don't compare awesomely.
Next blog is on Monday. Bye for now,
Connor
Good times, good times.
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Friday, August 28, 2015
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Evaluating My Own Fantasy Draft
On Saturday I participated in my fantasy football league's draft, which also happened to be the first live draft I've ever been a part of, the rest being done online. This is the third year of a 10-team league I created with some high school friends, and there's extra bragging rights up for grabs this year as it will be our final season before we all head off to college, although we still have plans to continue the league into the future. Since I wrote a piece a couple weeks ago on fantasy football draft strategy, which can be found here: http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/07/fantasy-football-draft-strategy.html, I thought it would be interesting to evaluate my draft and see if my player selections reflected the tips I gave in the article.
First of all, I should give some background on the specifics of the league. As I said earlier, the league has 10 teams. We play .5 PPR, so every catch earns half a point. The rest of the scoring is Yahoo standard, since that is the site we use for the league. As for rosters, we like having flexibility, which is why we start two running backs, two wide receivers, and two flex spots (RB/WR/TE), along with one quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense, for a total of 10 starting positions, with a six-man bench.
I drafted sixth in the first round (we use a snake draft so that means 15th in the 2nd round and so on), and was initially planning to draft Matt Forte if the first five picks were the top running backs (AP/Lacy/Charles/Bell/Lynch). However, Antonio Brown was draft fourth, leaving Beast Mode himself Marshawn Lynch available at six, and despite how much I like Forte and his added value in .5PPR versus no PPR, I couldn't pass up on such a consistently incredible back.
In my draft strategy, I say that choosing a running back in the first round is almost a must, especially for teams drafting in the front half of the first round, in which snagging a top-5 back is crucial. Luckily for me, I was able to get one of those guys at six, getting my draft off to a solid start. Now in terms of second round strategy I advocated choosing a running back only if there was good value in the pick, and otherwise going wide receiver. If someone like LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray was still available at 15, I would've chosen them in a heartbeat. However, they were off the board and with the next running backs chosen being Jeremy Hill and Justin Forsett, I felt like choosing them would be reaching, at least for Forsett (I'm not a huge fan of Hill), so I went wide receiver.
Who did I get as my team's first wide receiver? Megatron, Calvin Johnson. I thought this was another strong pick taking Johnson as the sixth receiver off the board, although I did strongly consider choosing Rob Gronkowski instead, who ended up being the next pick in the draft. I feel like this year both Stafford and Johnson will have strong bounce-back seasons after struggling somewhat in 2014.
In the third round, I knew I had to go running back again, simply because of a player I love who was still available, and basically right at his ADP. That's Alfred Morris, a player who I see as underrated and someone who can definitely finish the year as a top-10 back in the league, with over 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons in the league. I ended up passing on Randall Cobb, a guy who I've owned each of the last three years to do so, but I still love the pick. I ended up going with my third running back in the fourth round. This was not by design, but as I wrote, being aware of value picks is always important, and I believe I found one with Saints back Mark Ingram at pick #35 overall. It's not the most interesting pick in the world, but it's a great flex play for me with Ingram coming off his best career season and potential injury concerns with backup C.J. Spiller.
Going into round five, the draft had gone relatively according to plan, and with the exception of Ingram, I chose players who before the draft I had marked as strong targets for their respective rounds. In the overall draft, things had also been going relatively according to plan. Only two quarterbacks (Luck and Rodgers) had been taken, and Gronk and Graham were the only tight ends off the board. The rest of the picks were split roughly even between RBs and WRs, meaning I was a little behind in the receiving department, something I changed with my next two picks.
Despite injury troubles which are now all but cleared up, I chose one of last year's breakout rookies, Sammy Watkins, with pick 46. I feel he might be slightly underrated due to his team's poor quarterback situation, but I'm confident in him as the team's #1, and as a guy who will get nearly every red zone target. Then in round six I once again went with a second-year receiver from the AFC East, choosing one of the players I wanted more than anyone else, Dolphins #1 Jarvis Landry. Along with his friendship with fellow LSU alum Odell Beckham Jr., I'm high on Landry because the Dolphins' two main receivers (Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline) both left the team in the offseason, and because Landry is currently slated to keep his job as the team's primary kick and punt returner, for which he'll get one point per 25 yards. Despite reaching a little compared to his ADP, I knew I had picked a winner when I got a couple groans from other guys wanting him as their next selection.
In round seven I went with LeGarrette Blount, who once he finishes his one-game suspension, will prove to be a strong flex option and be the fourth man in what I view as a very strong running back group which I add one more man to later.
Picks eight and nine were spent filling in my gaps at quarterback and tight end, since up to that point I had only gone with running backs and wide receivers. In the eight I took my man Eli Manning as the ninth quarterback off the board. I knew going into the draft I wanting to wait on QB to get Eli, since even though I'm a Giants fan I really expect him to have a great year. With the quarterback rush happening in the couple rounds before, I accepted the round as a good spot to get the guy I wanted. Then in round nine I took old reliable, Jason Witten, someone I didn't think would remain on the board, but ended up being the eighth tight end chosen (we really waited on TEs), despite me viewing him as a top-5 caliber guy.
With starters already chosen, rounds 10-14 became my opportunity to pick up some guys who I think have the capability to really make an impact and surprise some people. This group starts with Cardinals wideout John Brown (yes, another second year guy and we aren't done with them yet), who made some really great catches near the tail end of 2014 and though he starts the year as the #3 receiver on the team, could easily in my mind finish the year as the #1 if he plays to his potential, and Larry Fitzgerald continues to decline.
In round 11 I took a flyer on Devonta Freeman, who is currently fighting with Tevin Coleman for the starting RB role in Atlanta, despite being currently sidelined with an injury. It's came as a surprise that he was still around as a potential starter, but my league was collectively scared of the Falcons running situation, as Coleman wasn't even taken until the ninth round himself.
In round 12 I took my fourth second-year wideout, this time being Packers #3 guy Davante Adams, who Aaron Rodgers has publicly stated will receive more looks this year after impressing in training camp. Then in the 13th I went back to my Giants, taking Reuben Randle, hoping he'll be the beneficiary of all the OBJ double and triple teams. Then in round 14 I went for a backup quarterback, taking the guy I see as having the greatest breakout potential of the players remaining, Teddy Bridgewater.
I closed out the draft by taking the Miami defense with the newly added Donkey Kong Suh, and Connor Barth as kicker for mainly name reasons but also because he kicks for the Broncos, and that's never a bad thing.
Overall, I'm really pleased with how I drafted and feel like if a couple guys breakout, I could be a serious title contender in this league, and a playoff team at the very least. I followed the rules I set out for myself, having no more than two players from one team, three players with the same bye week, no rookies, and finishing off with one defense and one kicker. Now I'm just excited for the season to begin.
Connor
My Team:
QB- Eli Manning, Teddy Bridgewater
RB- Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount, Devonta Freeman
WR- Calvin Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, John Brown, Davante Adams, Reuben Randle
TE- Jason Witten
K- Connor Barth
DEF- Miami Dolphins
First of all, I should give some background on the specifics of the league. As I said earlier, the league has 10 teams. We play .5 PPR, so every catch earns half a point. The rest of the scoring is Yahoo standard, since that is the site we use for the league. As for rosters, we like having flexibility, which is why we start two running backs, two wide receivers, and two flex spots (RB/WR/TE), along with one quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense, for a total of 10 starting positions, with a six-man bench.
I drafted sixth in the first round (we use a snake draft so that means 15th in the 2nd round and so on), and was initially planning to draft Matt Forte if the first five picks were the top running backs (AP/Lacy/Charles/Bell/Lynch). However, Antonio Brown was draft fourth, leaving Beast Mode himself Marshawn Lynch available at six, and despite how much I like Forte and his added value in .5PPR versus no PPR, I couldn't pass up on such a consistently incredible back.
In my draft strategy, I say that choosing a running back in the first round is almost a must, especially for teams drafting in the front half of the first round, in which snagging a top-5 back is crucial. Luckily for me, I was able to get one of those guys at six, getting my draft off to a solid start. Now in terms of second round strategy I advocated choosing a running back only if there was good value in the pick, and otherwise going wide receiver. If someone like LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray was still available at 15, I would've chosen them in a heartbeat. However, they were off the board and with the next running backs chosen being Jeremy Hill and Justin Forsett, I felt like choosing them would be reaching, at least for Forsett (I'm not a huge fan of Hill), so I went wide receiver.
Who did I get as my team's first wide receiver? Megatron, Calvin Johnson. I thought this was another strong pick taking Johnson as the sixth receiver off the board, although I did strongly consider choosing Rob Gronkowski instead, who ended up being the next pick in the draft. I feel like this year both Stafford and Johnson will have strong bounce-back seasons after struggling somewhat in 2014.
In the third round, I knew I had to go running back again, simply because of a player I love who was still available, and basically right at his ADP. That's Alfred Morris, a player who I see as underrated and someone who can definitely finish the year as a top-10 back in the league, with over 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons in the league. I ended up passing on Randall Cobb, a guy who I've owned each of the last three years to do so, but I still love the pick. I ended up going with my third running back in the fourth round. This was not by design, but as I wrote, being aware of value picks is always important, and I believe I found one with Saints back Mark Ingram at pick #35 overall. It's not the most interesting pick in the world, but it's a great flex play for me with Ingram coming off his best career season and potential injury concerns with backup C.J. Spiller.
Going into round five, the draft had gone relatively according to plan, and with the exception of Ingram, I chose players who before the draft I had marked as strong targets for their respective rounds. In the overall draft, things had also been going relatively according to plan. Only two quarterbacks (Luck and Rodgers) had been taken, and Gronk and Graham were the only tight ends off the board. The rest of the picks were split roughly even between RBs and WRs, meaning I was a little behind in the receiving department, something I changed with my next two picks.
Despite injury troubles which are now all but cleared up, I chose one of last year's breakout rookies, Sammy Watkins, with pick 46. I feel he might be slightly underrated due to his team's poor quarterback situation, but I'm confident in him as the team's #1, and as a guy who will get nearly every red zone target. Then in round six I once again went with a second-year receiver from the AFC East, choosing one of the players I wanted more than anyone else, Dolphins #1 Jarvis Landry. Along with his friendship with fellow LSU alum Odell Beckham Jr., I'm high on Landry because the Dolphins' two main receivers (Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline) both left the team in the offseason, and because Landry is currently slated to keep his job as the team's primary kick and punt returner, for which he'll get one point per 25 yards. Despite reaching a little compared to his ADP, I knew I had picked a winner when I got a couple groans from other guys wanting him as their next selection.
In round seven I went with LeGarrette Blount, who once he finishes his one-game suspension, will prove to be a strong flex option and be the fourth man in what I view as a very strong running back group which I add one more man to later.
Picks eight and nine were spent filling in my gaps at quarterback and tight end, since up to that point I had only gone with running backs and wide receivers. In the eight I took my man Eli Manning as the ninth quarterback off the board. I knew going into the draft I wanting to wait on QB to get Eli, since even though I'm a Giants fan I really expect him to have a great year. With the quarterback rush happening in the couple rounds before, I accepted the round as a good spot to get the guy I wanted. Then in round nine I took old reliable, Jason Witten, someone I didn't think would remain on the board, but ended up being the eighth tight end chosen (we really waited on TEs), despite me viewing him as a top-5 caliber guy.
With starters already chosen, rounds 10-14 became my opportunity to pick up some guys who I think have the capability to really make an impact and surprise some people. This group starts with Cardinals wideout John Brown (yes, another second year guy and we aren't done with them yet), who made some really great catches near the tail end of 2014 and though he starts the year as the #3 receiver on the team, could easily in my mind finish the year as the #1 if he plays to his potential, and Larry Fitzgerald continues to decline.
In round 11 I took a flyer on Devonta Freeman, who is currently fighting with Tevin Coleman for the starting RB role in Atlanta, despite being currently sidelined with an injury. It's came as a surprise that he was still around as a potential starter, but my league was collectively scared of the Falcons running situation, as Coleman wasn't even taken until the ninth round himself.
In round 12 I took my fourth second-year wideout, this time being Packers #3 guy Davante Adams, who Aaron Rodgers has publicly stated will receive more looks this year after impressing in training camp. Then in the 13th I went back to my Giants, taking Reuben Randle, hoping he'll be the beneficiary of all the OBJ double and triple teams. Then in round 14 I went for a backup quarterback, taking the guy I see as having the greatest breakout potential of the players remaining, Teddy Bridgewater.
I closed out the draft by taking the Miami defense with the newly added Donkey Kong Suh, and Connor Barth as kicker for mainly name reasons but also because he kicks for the Broncos, and that's never a bad thing.
Overall, I'm really pleased with how I drafted and feel like if a couple guys breakout, I could be a serious title contender in this league, and a playoff team at the very least. I followed the rules I set out for myself, having no more than two players from one team, three players with the same bye week, no rookies, and finishing off with one defense and one kicker. Now I'm just excited for the season to begin.
Connor
My Team:
QB- Eli Manning, Teddy Bridgewater
RB- Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount, Devonta Freeman
WR- Calvin Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, John Brown, Davante Adams, Reuben Randle
TE- Jason Witten
K- Connor Barth
DEF- Miami Dolphins
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
9 More Common Hold 'em Myths (Poker Misconceptions part 2)
*This is the second part of a three-part series detailing many of the misconceptions the
general public has about Texas Hold'em. Much of the information in these
articles apply to poker in general. However, I am specifically
talking about Texas Hold 'em because it is easily the most well known
and most popular variant of poker.
In the first part of this series, I explained how there are many misconceptions that the average person has about poker, specifically Texas Hold'em, the game most people think of when hearing the word poker. That post can be found here: http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/06/why-texas-hold-is-not-game-of-chance.html. In that part, I specifically dealt with what I believe to be the biggest and most problematic misconception of all - that poker is a game of luck. I went into many reasons why poker is much more a game of skill than luck, even including a good amount of strategy concepts and scenarios. However, there are many more myths about poker, and I intend to expose nine more of them here.
1) Luck Transfers From Hand to Hand: For some reason, people seem to believe that their luck in past hands influence their luck in future hands. I'm frequently told things like, "last time I played 5-9 off-suit, I ended up winning a huge pot, so I'll play that hand again if I see it," or, "I've been hitting a lot of flush draws today, so I know I'll hit on the river." Believe it or not, the cards have no memory, and have no clue as to whether you've been lucky or not recently. The way the deck was shuffled in one hand has zero influence on another hand. In fact, believing it does will typically end up hurting you. You probably only played 5-9 off-suit if you were in a blind and could see a cheap flop. It's a bad move to play that kind of hand frequently. Think of it this way. If you lose a hand with aces, are you going to fold aces next time you get them? Of course not. You play the cards you have in a smart way, no matter what they are.
2) There are Tons of Big Hands: I chock this myth up to two things: poker shows on TV, and poker in other TV shows and movies, most notably a certain hand in Casino Royale. Basically, people believe that when they play poker, there is never a dull moment. On one hand, a flush will beat trips, and on the next a full house will beat top two pair. This simply doesn't happen. Watching poker on TV is essentially watching a highlight show. The show will typically take the best hands from one day of play which may last 6-12 hours at dozens of tables, and cut them down into a 45-minute show. This means thousands of hands are reduced to around 20-30, and those 20 will include crazy hands, an unusually high number of busts, and the big wins from top pros. It may seem ridiculous to suggest that anything above one pair is actually a very strong hand in Hold'em, but in actuality, roughly 92% of the time you'll end up with either nothing or just a single pair, meaning two pair or better will win the majority of pots. A full list of the odds of getting certain hands can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability#Frequency_of_5-card_poker_hands. It's safe to say that poker isn't quite as exciting as it is on TV.
3) Players Go "All-in" Frequently: If you really think about it, this is pretty dumb. However, just as with the last myth, TV and movies have done the job of making the ridiculous seem like fact. When a player goes all-in, they are putting their life on the line. If they lose, and are playing in a tournament, they're out unless they're in a re-buy period. In cash games, they can't keep playing unless they put in more money. Putting all your chips in the middle is a serious move, and one that is made in rare circumstances, almost always with a great hand. It doesn't happen often. Despite this, I guarantee that in almost every TV show or movie with a poker scene, someone ends up going all-in. It just makes for a more interesting plotline. However, in real life, it's the one move poker players try to avoid.
4) It's All About the Pokerface: A poker player must have a serious, cold stare, devoid of any emotion to be successful...right? Well, while I wouldn't recommend smiling or going straight for betting chips any time a good card appears, the whole notion of a pokerface is seriously overrated. While having a perfect blank expression does make it harder for an opponent to get a read, they should never be able to tell exactly what hand you have if you aren't giving off an expression that could beat a brick wall in a staring contest. I personally like to talk during my hands and try to use psychology to my advantage. Everyone has their own methods, and I just recommend doing whatever comes naturally.
5) Tells and Reading Other People: Similarly to the pokerface, many people believe that the best poker players use some voodoo mind tricks and seem to always know what the other person is holding. In actuality, the decisions of top players rely on a combination of math and odds with what they can deduce their opponent might have through analyzing their opponents plays on every betting opportunity with the cards on the board and knowledge of that person's play style. Tells can make these decisions much easier, but most players don't have any obvious actions that can always signal that they either have a hand or don't. Finding a tell requires a lot of work and won't work all the time, meaning there are many other more important factors in a hand.
6) Bluffing is Essential to Success: A well-timed bluff can win you a lot of chips and earn you the respect of other players. However, bluffing too much can be very dangerous, as players will quickly pick up on this and be much more willing to call your bluffs, losing you money in the long run. In fact, many great poker players hardly bluff at all, and instead just focus on making as much money as possible when they have strong hands. Bluffing is an important skill to have, but it is far from the only factor deciding who a good poker player is.
7) Poker is Hard to Learn and Play: A lot of people don't play poker because they believe it will take them a lot of time to learn the game and that when they play they will just get crushed and lose their money to better players. The rules of Texas Hold'em can be learned in just a few minutes, and the game is easy to pick up when you begin playing it. The thing I love about the game is that while a new player won't be as good as an experienced one, they can still compete. Sometimes a new player will play well without realizing it, or just get a lucky run of cards. In a game like chess, and new player will always get dominated by a Grandmaster in just a few moves. However, a poker table is a great equalizer, and anyone sitting and playing has a chance to win.
8) Aces are Invincible: Pocket rockets, bullets, or simply aces- no matter what you call them, ace-ace is the best starting hand in Hold'em by far, beating every other hand at least roughly 80% of the time. However, people often fool themselves into thinking that they can't fold aces in any circumstance. Additionally, they are always eager to tell people about their bad beats when they had aces, wondering how unlucky they must've been to lose with them. First off, if a board has four cards of a suit, and you don't have the nut flush, there's a good chance you're beaten. Even if you have trip aces, the situation is unchanged. Four to a straight is a similar situation. Since anything as low as two pair beats a single pair of aces, you must beware of opponents holding better hands when they raise large amounts. The funny thing about aces is that while many people think you want to play against as many people as possible with aces to win more money from more people, that strategy actually ends up hurting you more often than not. The reason is that despite how good aces are, when going up against more and more opponents, your odds of winning drop. Against one opponent holding a random combination of two cards, the odds of aces winning is 85%. However, against four players, the odds drop to just 56%, not much better than 50-50. So when people complain about losing with aces, they probably don't realize how low their odds actually are. It's far from 100%.
9) Zynga Success = Real Success: A lot of people play online poker games or poker apps such as Zynga Poker because they allow people to play against other people without spending any actual money. However, someone being successful on an app far from guarantees success live. This is because apps like Zynga Poker have a lower level of competition, and many people on the app just enjoy throwing money around and going all-in because if they lose they can just go to lower stakes and do the same thing over again. While apps like this can be good for just hanging out, it doesn't mimic the experience of an actual live game.
Hopefully now I've cleared up many of the myths surrounding Texas Hold'em. In the third and final part of this series, I'll be discussing a side of poker rarely talked about- the educational side of the game.
In the first part of this series, I explained how there are many misconceptions that the average person has about poker, specifically Texas Hold'em, the game most people think of when hearing the word poker. That post can be found here: http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/06/why-texas-hold-is-not-game-of-chance.html. In that part, I specifically dealt with what I believe to be the biggest and most problematic misconception of all - that poker is a game of luck. I went into many reasons why poker is much more a game of skill than luck, even including a good amount of strategy concepts and scenarios. However, there are many more myths about poker, and I intend to expose nine more of them here.
1) Luck Transfers From Hand to Hand: For some reason, people seem to believe that their luck in past hands influence their luck in future hands. I'm frequently told things like, "last time I played 5-9 off-suit, I ended up winning a huge pot, so I'll play that hand again if I see it," or, "I've been hitting a lot of flush draws today, so I know I'll hit on the river." Believe it or not, the cards have no memory, and have no clue as to whether you've been lucky or not recently. The way the deck was shuffled in one hand has zero influence on another hand. In fact, believing it does will typically end up hurting you. You probably only played 5-9 off-suit if you were in a blind and could see a cheap flop. It's a bad move to play that kind of hand frequently. Think of it this way. If you lose a hand with aces, are you going to fold aces next time you get them? Of course not. You play the cards you have in a smart way, no matter what they are.
2) There are Tons of Big Hands: I chock this myth up to two things: poker shows on TV, and poker in other TV shows and movies, most notably a certain hand in Casino Royale. Basically, people believe that when they play poker, there is never a dull moment. On one hand, a flush will beat trips, and on the next a full house will beat top two pair. This simply doesn't happen. Watching poker on TV is essentially watching a highlight show. The show will typically take the best hands from one day of play which may last 6-12 hours at dozens of tables, and cut them down into a 45-minute show. This means thousands of hands are reduced to around 20-30, and those 20 will include crazy hands, an unusually high number of busts, and the big wins from top pros. It may seem ridiculous to suggest that anything above one pair is actually a very strong hand in Hold'em, but in actuality, roughly 92% of the time you'll end up with either nothing or just a single pair, meaning two pair or better will win the majority of pots. A full list of the odds of getting certain hands can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability#Frequency_of_5-card_poker_hands. It's safe to say that poker isn't quite as exciting as it is on TV.
3) Players Go "All-in" Frequently: If you really think about it, this is pretty dumb. However, just as with the last myth, TV and movies have done the job of making the ridiculous seem like fact. When a player goes all-in, they are putting their life on the line. If they lose, and are playing in a tournament, they're out unless they're in a re-buy period. In cash games, they can't keep playing unless they put in more money. Putting all your chips in the middle is a serious move, and one that is made in rare circumstances, almost always with a great hand. It doesn't happen often. Despite this, I guarantee that in almost every TV show or movie with a poker scene, someone ends up going all-in. It just makes for a more interesting plotline. However, in real life, it's the one move poker players try to avoid.
4) It's All About the Pokerface: A poker player must have a serious, cold stare, devoid of any emotion to be successful...right? Well, while I wouldn't recommend smiling or going straight for betting chips any time a good card appears, the whole notion of a pokerface is seriously overrated. While having a perfect blank expression does make it harder for an opponent to get a read, they should never be able to tell exactly what hand you have if you aren't giving off an expression that could beat a brick wall in a staring contest. I personally like to talk during my hands and try to use psychology to my advantage. Everyone has their own methods, and I just recommend doing whatever comes naturally.
5) Tells and Reading Other People: Similarly to the pokerface, many people believe that the best poker players use some voodoo mind tricks and seem to always know what the other person is holding. In actuality, the decisions of top players rely on a combination of math and odds with what they can deduce their opponent might have through analyzing their opponents plays on every betting opportunity with the cards on the board and knowledge of that person's play style. Tells can make these decisions much easier, but most players don't have any obvious actions that can always signal that they either have a hand or don't. Finding a tell requires a lot of work and won't work all the time, meaning there are many other more important factors in a hand.
6) Bluffing is Essential to Success: A well-timed bluff can win you a lot of chips and earn you the respect of other players. However, bluffing too much can be very dangerous, as players will quickly pick up on this and be much more willing to call your bluffs, losing you money in the long run. In fact, many great poker players hardly bluff at all, and instead just focus on making as much money as possible when they have strong hands. Bluffing is an important skill to have, but it is far from the only factor deciding who a good poker player is.
7) Poker is Hard to Learn and Play: A lot of people don't play poker because they believe it will take them a lot of time to learn the game and that when they play they will just get crushed and lose their money to better players. The rules of Texas Hold'em can be learned in just a few minutes, and the game is easy to pick up when you begin playing it. The thing I love about the game is that while a new player won't be as good as an experienced one, they can still compete. Sometimes a new player will play well without realizing it, or just get a lucky run of cards. In a game like chess, and new player will always get dominated by a Grandmaster in just a few moves. However, a poker table is a great equalizer, and anyone sitting and playing has a chance to win.
8) Aces are Invincible: Pocket rockets, bullets, or simply aces- no matter what you call them, ace-ace is the best starting hand in Hold'em by far, beating every other hand at least roughly 80% of the time. However, people often fool themselves into thinking that they can't fold aces in any circumstance. Additionally, they are always eager to tell people about their bad beats when they had aces, wondering how unlucky they must've been to lose with them. First off, if a board has four cards of a suit, and you don't have the nut flush, there's a good chance you're beaten. Even if you have trip aces, the situation is unchanged. Four to a straight is a similar situation. Since anything as low as two pair beats a single pair of aces, you must beware of opponents holding better hands when they raise large amounts. The funny thing about aces is that while many people think you want to play against as many people as possible with aces to win more money from more people, that strategy actually ends up hurting you more often than not. The reason is that despite how good aces are, when going up against more and more opponents, your odds of winning drop. Against one opponent holding a random combination of two cards, the odds of aces winning is 85%. However, against four players, the odds drop to just 56%, not much better than 50-50. So when people complain about losing with aces, they probably don't realize how low their odds actually are. It's far from 100%.
9) Zynga Success = Real Success: A lot of people play online poker games or poker apps such as Zynga Poker because they allow people to play against other people without spending any actual money. However, someone being successful on an app far from guarantees success live. This is because apps like Zynga Poker have a lower level of competition, and many people on the app just enjoy throwing money around and going all-in because if they lose they can just go to lower stakes and do the same thing over again. While apps like this can be good for just hanging out, it doesn't mimic the experience of an actual live game.
Hopefully now I've cleared up many of the myths surrounding Texas Hold'em. In the third and final part of this series, I'll be discussing a side of poker rarely talked about- the educational side of the game.
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