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| If you choose (for whatever reason) to use these picks, and they end up horrible, please don't blame me! No matter how many hundreds of hours I spend watching games and researching, I never end up with a great bracket...I'm usually really good in the first round, and then after that it becomes a crapshoot. |
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Wednesday, March 18, 2015
My March Madness Bracket
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Top 5 Most Likely Cinderellas
The tournament starts in less than two days, and by the end of the weekend, we will undoubtedly have seen upsets that will leave us scratching our heads. Just as certain I am that a few powerhouses will brought down by big underdogs, I can also tell you that there will be that guy in your family, school, or office that will brag about how they KNEW that 12 seed would make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Let's face it: as much as we hate that guy, simultaneously we all want to be that guy. Here are a few of the more likelier upsets that could pay off in your bracket. I am going to give five Cinderellas (definitions for this term vary, but for now I'll use it to refer to teams seeded 9 or lower that make the Sweet Sixteen) that have the potential to shock the world.
#10 Davidson: Steph Curry may no longer be eligible, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats are without talent. They will look to run Iowa out of the building, putting up points in a hurry. If they can dictate pace of play and knock down threes, I like them to take down the Hawkeyes. If they can do that, they'll have a chance at pulling a big upset over Gonzaga, who are notorious for folding in the tourney.
#10 Davidson: Steph Curry may no longer be eligible, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats are without talent. They will look to run Iowa out of the building, putting up points in a hurry. If they can dictate pace of play and knock down threes, I like them to take down the Hawkeyes. If they can do that, they'll have a chance at pulling a big upset over Gonzaga, who are notorious for folding in the tourney.
#11 Ole Miss: BYU led Ole Miss by 17 points at halftime in their First Four matchup, but when it looked over for the Rebels, they dropped an insane 62 points in the second half to pull off the tournament's first big comeback. Now they'll get some tasty matchups against Xavier and Baylor, widely considered to be the weakest 6 and 3 seeds in the field. They will need to play strong interior defense and hit the glass hard to get past Matt Stainbrook and especially Rico Gathers, but if they can accomplish that, they have one of the best shooters in the nation when hot in Stefan Moody.
#12 Stephen F. Austin: The Lumberjacks are back, and have the potential to do even more damage than last year, when also as a 12 seed they took down VCU in one of the tournament's best games. Now with most of that team returning, including leaders Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, the Jacks will take on Utah in their first game. The Utes match up well against SFA, but have struggled down the stretch. If SFA can continue running an efficient offense and make the right passes, they can advance and will have a good shot against an overseeded Georgetown or a similar Eastern Washington.
#12 Buffalo: Speaking of SFA, Buffalo is positioned in the same place the Jacks were last season. No one was talking about the Bulls during the season, but they quietly had a really strong year in the MAC and had a top-40 RPI. They get West Virginia in the first round, and have the size and rebounding ability to pose a big threat. Remember, this is a team that led Kentucky at halftime earlier in the year (Insane Sweet 16 upset?). They would have a potential third round matchup against either Maryland or Valpo, and could manage to create a rematch with Kentucky.
#13 Eastern Washington: The nation's leading scorer led an incredible comeback in the Big Sky championship in order to make March Madness. Now Tyler Harvey, averaging just under 23 points per game, leads the Eagles who at 80.8 ppg are third in Division I in scoring. They will try to pull off a huge upset against Georgetown. The Hoyas are a better squad overall, but they are overseeded as I've mentioned, and a team that can score is always dangerous. If they advance, they have a 7-footer that could give Utah some trouble, and they play a similar style to SFA. The Eagles won't go down without a fight.
#12 Stephen F. Austin: The Lumberjacks are back, and have the potential to do even more damage than last year, when also as a 12 seed they took down VCU in one of the tournament's best games. Now with most of that team returning, including leaders Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, the Jacks will take on Utah in their first game. The Utes match up well against SFA, but have struggled down the stretch. If SFA can continue running an efficient offense and make the right passes, they can advance and will have a good shot against an overseeded Georgetown or a similar Eastern Washington.
#12 Buffalo: Speaking of SFA, Buffalo is positioned in the same place the Jacks were last season. No one was talking about the Bulls during the season, but they quietly had a really strong year in the MAC and had a top-40 RPI. They get West Virginia in the first round, and have the size and rebounding ability to pose a big threat. Remember, this is a team that led Kentucky at halftime earlier in the year (Insane Sweet 16 upset?). They would have a potential third round matchup against either Maryland or Valpo, and could manage to create a rematch with Kentucky.
#13 Eastern Washington: The nation's leading scorer led an incredible comeback in the Big Sky championship in order to make March Madness. Now Tyler Harvey, averaging just under 23 points per game, leads the Eagles who at 80.8 ppg are third in Division I in scoring. They will try to pull off a huge upset against Georgetown. The Hoyas are a better squad overall, but they are overseeded as I've mentioned, and a team that can score is always dangerous. If they advance, they have a 7-footer that could give Utah some trouble, and they play a similar style to SFA. The Eagles won't go down without a fight.
Monday, March 16, 2015
First Impressions of the Bracket
Yesterday the field of 68 for March Madness was officially released. I intended to give my final bracket predictions along with a first impressions blog yesterday, but I've been pretty sick lately, so it never ended up happening.
However, I can say that from my latest bracket, if we assume that Wyoming's auto bid took Miami's spot, I got 66/68 teams in the tournament correct, same as most bracketologists. Nearly everyone had Colorado St and Temple in the tournament, even though the committee decided otherwise. What's even more surprising to me is the teams that were included instead of them: UCLA and Indiana. Now I had both of them in my first four out, so it doesn't come as a terrible shock that they made it, but what annoys me is that neither team is in a play-in game, meaning that a 19-13 UCLA team and Indiana that lost nine of their last 14 games both weren't even in the last four teams in the tournament.
How the committee could have made these mistakes is beyond me. Colorado St and Temple were clearly more worthy in my opinion. In fact, neither one of them were in my last four in! They were both in the last four byes category! How the committee and I had such differing opinions on these four teams in beyond me. I was definitely looking forward to seeing Colorado St in the tournament. They were a solid upset pick from a 10-11 seed for me. They had won 27 games and had a sub-30 RPI, becoming the first team with an RPI that high to be left out of the field. And then Temple: I guess 25 point victories over Kansas mean nothing? Sure that was early in the year, but any team with the capability to pull that off deserves to be dancing.
I feel strongly that those four bubble teams received improper treatment from the committee. Additionally, I also feel that the committee made bad mistakes in the seedings of other teams in the tournament. Here are five teams the committee overrated and underrated.
Overrated:
1) Xavier- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 6. C'mon guys, a 13-loss 6-seed? I know they made a run to the Big East Championship, but they've lost to teams like Long Beach St, Auburn, Depaul, and Creighton. Heck of a 6.
2) Georgetown- Projected seed: 6; Actual seed: 4. Now I really like the Big East. I'd really go as far to say that they could produce as many Sweet Sixteen teams as any conference. However, I don't see how the Hoyas are any better than Butler or Providence.
3) Oklahoma St- Projected seed: 10/11; Actual seed: 9. Again, it seems the committee really loved teams from "power conferences" so much that they were willing to overlook their flaws. You can't give a team with a losing conference record a 9.
4) LSU- Projected seed: 11; Actual seed: 9. It's hard to imagine how high they would've been seeded if they hadn't loss to the awful Auburn in the SEC tournament. Did I mention an RPI of 58, DOUBLE Colorado St's?
5) Iowa- Projected seed: 8/9; Actual seed: 7. I applaud them for closing so strong in the Big Ten, but they really got beat up by the bottom of the conference, with losses to Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern.
Underrated:
1) Northern Iowa- Projected seed: 4; Actual seed: 5. 2) Wichita St- Projected Seed: 5; Actual seed: 7. With a combined seven losses between them, these two squads are vastly underrated coming from a Missouri Valley that has some really solid teams. Either one of these teams could make really surprise people and go far (and I have them both doing just that).
3) Ohio St- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 10. Expect the Buckeyes to upset VCU in the first round, taking advantage of an injured Briante Weber. They've beaten Maryland by 24, so they can play some great ball.
4) Oregon- Projected seed: 6/7; Actual seed: 8. The Ducks are as hot as any team, winning 11 out of their last 13 games in the Pac 12. Did I mention two of those came against Utah?
5) Dayton- Projected seed: 9; Actual seed: 11. The Flyers took second place in the Atlantic-10 and won at VCU earlier in the year. The 25-8 Flyers get to play in their hometown in the first four, even though they never should've been there in the first place. If they get through, Providence should watch out.
Time will tell if the committee actual did get these seedings right or if they made some bad mistakes.
However, I can say that from my latest bracket, if we assume that Wyoming's auto bid took Miami's spot, I got 66/68 teams in the tournament correct, same as most bracketologists. Nearly everyone had Colorado St and Temple in the tournament, even though the committee decided otherwise. What's even more surprising to me is the teams that were included instead of them: UCLA and Indiana. Now I had both of them in my first four out, so it doesn't come as a terrible shock that they made it, but what annoys me is that neither team is in a play-in game, meaning that a 19-13 UCLA team and Indiana that lost nine of their last 14 games both weren't even in the last four teams in the tournament.
How the committee could have made these mistakes is beyond me. Colorado St and Temple were clearly more worthy in my opinion. In fact, neither one of them were in my last four in! They were both in the last four byes category! How the committee and I had such differing opinions on these four teams in beyond me. I was definitely looking forward to seeing Colorado St in the tournament. They were a solid upset pick from a 10-11 seed for me. They had won 27 games and had a sub-30 RPI, becoming the first team with an RPI that high to be left out of the field. And then Temple: I guess 25 point victories over Kansas mean nothing? Sure that was early in the year, but any team with the capability to pull that off deserves to be dancing.
I feel strongly that those four bubble teams received improper treatment from the committee. Additionally, I also feel that the committee made bad mistakes in the seedings of other teams in the tournament. Here are five teams the committee overrated and underrated.
Overrated:
1) Xavier- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 6. C'mon guys, a 13-loss 6-seed? I know they made a run to the Big East Championship, but they've lost to teams like Long Beach St, Auburn, Depaul, and Creighton. Heck of a 6.
2) Georgetown- Projected seed: 6; Actual seed: 4. Now I really like the Big East. I'd really go as far to say that they could produce as many Sweet Sixteen teams as any conference. However, I don't see how the Hoyas are any better than Butler or Providence.
3) Oklahoma St- Projected seed: 10/11; Actual seed: 9. Again, it seems the committee really loved teams from "power conferences" so much that they were willing to overlook their flaws. You can't give a team with a losing conference record a 9.
4) LSU- Projected seed: 11; Actual seed: 9. It's hard to imagine how high they would've been seeded if they hadn't loss to the awful Auburn in the SEC tournament. Did I mention an RPI of 58, DOUBLE Colorado St's?
5) Iowa- Projected seed: 8/9; Actual seed: 7. I applaud them for closing so strong in the Big Ten, but they really got beat up by the bottom of the conference, with losses to Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern.
Underrated:
1) Northern Iowa- Projected seed: 4; Actual seed: 5. 2) Wichita St- Projected Seed: 5; Actual seed: 7. With a combined seven losses between them, these two squads are vastly underrated coming from a Missouri Valley that has some really solid teams. Either one of these teams could make really surprise people and go far (and I have them both doing just that).
3) Ohio St- Projected seed: 8; Actual seed: 10. Expect the Buckeyes to upset VCU in the first round, taking advantage of an injured Briante Weber. They've beaten Maryland by 24, so they can play some great ball.
4) Oregon- Projected seed: 6/7; Actual seed: 8. The Ducks are as hot as any team, winning 11 out of their last 13 games in the Pac 12. Did I mention two of those came against Utah?
5) Dayton- Projected seed: 9; Actual seed: 11. The Flyers took second place in the Atlantic-10 and won at VCU earlier in the year. The 25-8 Flyers get to play in their hometown in the first four, even though they never should've been there in the first place. If they get through, Providence should watch out.
Time will tell if the committee actual did get these seedings right or if they made some bad mistakes.
Thursday, March 12, 2015
The Bracket: Regularly Updated
This will be the page where I will be updating the bracket constantly over the next few days right up until the Selection Show. Every time a decent number of results come in, I'll update the bracket (probably around twice daily). The most recent bracket will be at the top, and older ones will be at the bottom in case you want to see how everything's moved around.
3/13: 11:30pm update
It's starting to become clearer. Thank god. Even though the SEC continued rejecting everything we thought we knew about college basketball with Auburn beating LSU, I can safely put a few more teams in the field. I now can say with relative certainty that Purdue and Temple will make the field. Both teams won and advanced into the semifinals of their respective conferences, and while an additional win would put the icing on the cake, they shouldn't have a ton to worry about. Additionally, Richmond fell to VCU, effectively ending the Spiders' chances. They already had two victories against VCU, but a third was needed to put them in the field. UCLA had a strong performance in its loss to Arizona, so I don't think they're done just yet. The Bruins will have a chance of hearing their names called on Sunday.
If I'm being perfectly honest, the far more interesting games today were played by top seeds. Both ACC one seeds (Duke and Virginia) stumbled in their tournaments to Notre Dame and North Carolina, setting up an unexpected final matchup. Villanova just barely squeaked by Providence in a great matchup. The fight for a 1 seed is now intense, as Duke, Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin will all feel worthy of being on the top line. My 1s right now would be Kentucky, Villanova, Arizona, Duke, although that is definitely subject to change. Wisconsin would take the last spot if they won the Big Ten tournament.
Lastly, the bid thieves. Wyoming is now only one game away from stealing a spot from the bubble after beating Boise State, who now becomes a bubble team (but almost certainly in the field). Here's how the bubble looks tonight. The current plan is to wait and release a final full bracket on Sunday before the selection show, and just to regularly update the bubble either here or on Twitter.
Last Four Byes: Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU, Purdue
Last Four In: LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Miami (Fl)
First Four Out: Tulsa, UCLA, Indiana, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Buffalo
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3/13: 12:30am update
What to do, what to do. It looks like no one is capable of winning a basketball game when they need to. Oklahoma St lost, and Ole Miss lost. This also probably moves LSU to being a lock, just because everyone around them is falling. Oklahoma St is probably okay, but who knows with Ole Miss, since they've lost four of five. Stanford is out with their loss against Utah, and Colorado St. is definitely in with a win. Truthfully, they were a lock a couple weeks back, but with the committee you never know. At this point, there's no way more than a couple teams could pass them, let alone the ten or so that would be needed to take them out at this point. A full bracket will come tomorrow, but I should probably sleep, so for now just a bubble update will do. I'm eager to see Lunardi's update tomorrow to see if we're thinking along the same lines. We start after Colorado St.
Last Four Byes: LSU, Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU
Last Four In: Purdue, Ole Miss, Texas, UCLA
First Four Out: Indiana, Miami (Fl), Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Old Dominion (had to put someone here)
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3/12: 9:45pm central time update
3/13: 11:30pm update
It's starting to become clearer. Thank god. Even though the SEC continued rejecting everything we thought we knew about college basketball with Auburn beating LSU, I can safely put a few more teams in the field. I now can say with relative certainty that Purdue and Temple will make the field. Both teams won and advanced into the semifinals of their respective conferences, and while an additional win would put the icing on the cake, they shouldn't have a ton to worry about. Additionally, Richmond fell to VCU, effectively ending the Spiders' chances. They already had two victories against VCU, but a third was needed to put them in the field. UCLA had a strong performance in its loss to Arizona, so I don't think they're done just yet. The Bruins will have a chance of hearing their names called on Sunday.
If I'm being perfectly honest, the far more interesting games today were played by top seeds. Both ACC one seeds (Duke and Virginia) stumbled in their tournaments to Notre Dame and North Carolina, setting up an unexpected final matchup. Villanova just barely squeaked by Providence in a great matchup. The fight for a 1 seed is now intense, as Duke, Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin will all feel worthy of being on the top line. My 1s right now would be Kentucky, Villanova, Arizona, Duke, although that is definitely subject to change. Wisconsin would take the last spot if they won the Big Ten tournament.
Lastly, the bid thieves. Wyoming is now only one game away from stealing a spot from the bubble after beating Boise State, who now becomes a bubble team (but almost certainly in the field). Here's how the bubble looks tonight. The current plan is to wait and release a final full bracket on Sunday before the selection show, and just to regularly update the bubble either here or on Twitter.
Last Four Byes: Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU, Purdue
Last Four In: LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, Miami (Fl)
First Four Out: Tulsa, UCLA, Indiana, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Buffalo
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3/13: 12:30am update
What to do, what to do. It looks like no one is capable of winning a basketball game when they need to. Oklahoma St lost, and Ole Miss lost. This also probably moves LSU to being a lock, just because everyone around them is falling. Oklahoma St is probably okay, but who knows with Ole Miss, since they've lost four of five. Stanford is out with their loss against Utah, and Colorado St. is definitely in with a win. Truthfully, they were a lock a couple weeks back, but with the committee you never know. At this point, there's no way more than a couple teams could pass them, let alone the ten or so that would be needed to take them out at this point. A full bracket will come tomorrow, but I should probably sleep, so for now just a bubble update will do. I'm eager to see Lunardi's update tomorrow to see if we're thinking along the same lines. We start after Colorado St.
Last Four Byes: LSU, Oklahoma St, Temple, BYU
Last Four In: Purdue, Ole Miss, Texas, UCLA
First Four Out: Indiana, Miami (Fl), Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Old Dominion (had to put someone here)
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3/12: 9:45pm central time update
1s: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova
2s: Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas
3s: Maryland, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Baylor
4s: Oklahoma, Louisville, Iowa St, Wichita St
5s: Utah, SMU, North Carolina, Butler
6s: West Virginia, Arkansas, Providence, Georgetown
7s: Ohio St, Michigan St, VCU, Iowa
8s: San Diego St, Dayton, St. John's, Georgia
9s: Xavier, Oregon, Cincinnati, NC State
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: Boise St, LSU Temple, BYU, Purdue
12s: Texas, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, UC Davis
14s: Georgia St, Northeastern, North Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: Miami (Fl), Indiana, Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Stanford
Eliminated: Old Dominion, Illinois, Vanderbilt
Bubble Notes:
-Purdue somehow managed to get lucky by Iowa falling to Penn State, so Purdue's chances go dramatically up since Purdue only has to beat the Nittany Lions in order to move into the Big Ten semis. That very well could be enough, although Penn State really wouldn't be a quality win. The teams around them are dropping like flies, though.
-Texas, oh Texas. They had a great chance to lock up a bid by beating Iowa State, but that'd be too easy. Instead, they surrender a 12-0 run down the stretch and it's a 50/50 if they get in at this point.
-Iona. Could they be an at-large? I guess it's technically possible, but in my mind they're still behind the first four out, next four out, ODU, and Illinois at least, so I'm not putting them up there. Here's why: zero top 100 RPI wins, 5 sub-150 RPI losses.
-Hopefully we can lock up Colorado St, Oklahoma St, and Ole Miss, but they'd all need a win.
-Yes, I tweeted that Texas A&M is out, but on second thought, they still have a glimmer of hope. They were actually in my field at the start of the day, and I don't think they're any worse than someone like Stanford. They're still better than the teams I eliminated in my opinion. But yeah, Auburn is just about as bad of a loss as possible at this point.
-Anyone else have a shot with a run to their conference finals? Not really. Pitt, Bama might've stood a chance, but they both lost opening round. And I think Green Bay, Yale, Buffalo, UConn, UTEP don't have much of a shot as an at-large. But there's always the possibility of a bid thief! There's still a few lurking...
8s: San Diego St, Dayton, St. John's, Georgia
9s: Xavier, Oregon, Cincinnati, NC State
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: Boise St, LSU Temple, BYU, Purdue
12s: Texas, UCLA, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, UC Davis
14s: Georgia St, Northeastern, North Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: Miami (Fl), Indiana, Tulsa, Murray St
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Richmond, Texas A&M, Stanford
Eliminated: Old Dominion, Illinois, Vanderbilt
Bubble Notes:
-Purdue somehow managed to get lucky by Iowa falling to Penn State, so Purdue's chances go dramatically up since Purdue only has to beat the Nittany Lions in order to move into the Big Ten semis. That very well could be enough, although Penn State really wouldn't be a quality win. The teams around them are dropping like flies, though.
-Texas, oh Texas. They had a great chance to lock up a bid by beating Iowa State, but that'd be too easy. Instead, they surrender a 12-0 run down the stretch and it's a 50/50 if they get in at this point.
-Iona. Could they be an at-large? I guess it's technically possible, but in my mind they're still behind the first four out, next four out, ODU, and Illinois at least, so I'm not putting them up there. Here's why: zero top 100 RPI wins, 5 sub-150 RPI losses.
-Hopefully we can lock up Colorado St, Oklahoma St, and Ole Miss, but they'd all need a win.
-Yes, I tweeted that Texas A&M is out, but on second thought, they still have a glimmer of hope. They were actually in my field at the start of the day, and I don't think they're any worse than someone like Stanford. They're still better than the teams I eliminated in my opinion. But yeah, Auburn is just about as bad of a loss as possible at this point.
-Anyone else have a shot with a run to their conference finals? Not really. Pitt, Bama might've stood a chance, but they both lost opening round. And I think Green Bay, Yale, Buffalo, UConn, UTEP don't have much of a shot as an at-large. But there's always the possibility of a bid thief! There's still a few lurking...
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Evaluating Bubble Teams' Paths to At-Large Bids
This is essentially the second part of yesterday's bracketology, which can be found here: http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/bracketology-week-18-mar-10.html. I'm going to be looking at each team on the bubble and seeing what they need to do to earn an at-large bid. In terms of the actual bracket, it remains unchanged from yesterday with the exception of officially locking in Gonzaga and Valparaiso, and swapping South Dakota St and St. Francis with North Dakota St and Robert Morris, and locking them in. The at-large situation remains basically unchanged, except that upon further review, BYU is probably a little safer than the last team in. I'd put them above Texas A&M and Purdue at this point, making them an 11 seed. Now that we know where we're starting, let's see how the bubble looks.
First of all, it's important to know how many spots are realistically available. There are 68 teams in the tournament, and 32 are decided by automatic bids. That leaves 36 spots for at-large bids. I would say that in my recent bracket, every team in the top nine seeds and Davidson, the first 10 seed, are locks for the tournament. That's 37 teams. However, ten of those teams are currently leading conferences, so there's 27 more teams. 36-27= 9, so there are nine remaining spots. I believe there are 22 teams with a possibility of getting those spots. They are as follows:
Current 10 seeds: Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
Current 11 seeds: LSU, Temple, Texas, BYU
Current 12 seeds: Texas A&M, Purdue
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Barely Hanging: Richmond, Stanford, Vanderbilt
Current Auto-bids if they lose their conference tournament: #11 Boise St, #12 Stephen F. Austin
So those are the teams I think stand a chance at claiming the last few spots. 20 schools playing for nine spots, plus two more if they don't get auto-bids. However, the tough part is that as I talked about a couple days ago in "Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?" http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-conference-tournaments-bad-for.html, there are potential bid thieves who may shrink that magic number of nine even lower, making the bubble race ever the tighter and more difficult to decide who makes it in and who doesn't.
The first two teams on the list are Colorado St, and Oklahoma St, and I'd say both of them are looking at 90+% odds at making the field. It's going to be really difficult for them not to make the field, so much so that a win for either in their conference tournament would make them a lock. Colorado St has Fresno St in their first round, and should easily win. However, if they lose, and a lot of other people win, and the bid thieves take a few spots, it's feasible that they could find themselves closer to the bubble. However, I think that even in a down year for the Mountain West, 13-5 is no joke. They're a 26 win team with an RPI of 26, which in a power conference would make them a top 5 seed no doubt. For proof, see Notre Dame, a 26-5 (same record as Colorado St) RPI 24 team that I have as a 3. The point is, in my book they're a lock, but I'm a tad unsure of the committee, which has them as the top team on the bubble.
Oklahoma St had me genuinely scared for a while, and I thought they easily could have been the next Texas when they went on their four game losing streak in the second half of February, but by beating TCU and finishing 8-10 in the Big 12, they saved themselves from being a team walking the line of in and out. They get #15 Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, and while a win would certainly do the job, even a respectable loss should keep them safe.
Then we have the two SEC teams in very similar positions, Ole Miss and LSU. The Rebels are trending downwards after losing three of their last four, while LSU put themselves in good position with a win over #21 Arkansas to finish the regular season. A win would put each of these teams in, but while a loss would be okay for Colorado St and Oklahoma St, an opening round loss would put these teams in danger.
The Temple Owls may suffer a bit in the eyes of the committee because while the American Conference is solid and is probably a 3-bid league, they don't have the depth of a major conference. So while they finished the year with three wins over Houston, ECU, and UConn, none of them are that good. Temple holds the four seed in the conference tournament and will play the five seed Memphis. Temple is the first team that actually needs to win their opening round matchup. If they don't, it will be a matter of how much the committee values a 25-point win over Kansas, because it's by far their best win.
Texas should be rewarded for salvaging a season that once looked to be long gone. By winning their last two games against Baylor and Kansas St, they went from the first four out into the last four in, and as long as they beat Texas Tech, they will be in good position to advance, because they'll have an RPI around 40, a top 15 SOS number in the hardest conferences, 20 wins, and only one loss outside of the RPI top 50, which was to fellow bubble team Stanford. By numbers alone, the Longhorns look good.
BYU has no more games to play, but their away win against Gonzaga near the end of the regular season singlehandedly put them into good standing. BYU is a strong team with a few great players in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, that any team would be scared of in the Big Dance. All they lacked was a signature win, and that's what they got. They can't lose any more games, so they can't play themselves out of the tournament. They've done well getting on the right side of the bubble, but anything can happen now that their fate is in other teams' hands.
Texas A&M is in a difficult position because typically 20-win teams from traditionally strong conferences would be feeling pretty comfortable, but for a team in a potential 6-bid league, they haven't really beaten anyone. Their only wins against potential tournament teams came in a sweep of LSU. Besides that, their next highest RPI victory is #76 Florida, and they have a losing record. They absolutely must beat Auburn, and then will play LSU. If they complete the Tiger trifecta, they'll be dancing. Any less and I don't think it happens.
Purdue has been confusing for their last couple months because of the clash of their great conference record and 219 non-conference SOS. However, after losing two of three down the stretch they're going to need to make a statement in the conference tournament or be passed up. It'd be a lot easier if they hadn't lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb...they'll probably play Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals, and it's a must win for sure. Too bad Iowa's a great team, and Purdue can't make it without a win.
-------------------------------------------------The Bubble--------------------------------------------
UCLA looked hopeless for the first half of the season, but were jumpstarted after knocking off Utah. The Bruins have been up and down since then, and have won their last three since losing the two prior. They're a true bubble team, in a decent conference with decent numbers, a 12-loss record, but a couple good wins. They need to beat USC, but that might not be enough. The only problem is that their potential semifinal matchup is against Arizona. I don't think they can win that game, and I think they'll end up in the first four out on Selection Sunday.
Miami (Fl) is testing how far a win over Duke can carry a bubble team. Duke and NC State are their best wins, but they could've been in much better position if they could've beaten Virginia, Notre Dame, or Louisville, all of whom they played close. 20 and 28 point home losses to Georgia Tech and Eastern Kentucky aren't helping the cause, either. Ok, let's face it, if those two losses don't happen their in the field. They must beat Virginia Tech, and then they'll probably need to beat Notre Dame as well.
Indiana was an 8 seed in my first bracketology, but they've lost 8 of 12 down the stretch, and are in free fall. To save their year, they will need to beat both Northwestern and a really good Maryland team. It might seem unfair, but with so many teams competing for a limited number of spots, if they don't go deep, someone else will.
Old Dominion would probably just be best winning the Conference-USA tournament, as they have the best shot of any bubble team in winning their tourney. They were a solid middle-seed when conference play started, but silly losses have put them in their position. The issue is that I'm not sure the committee will give C-USA a second bid. They'd need at least a trip to the title game to stand a chance, but if they want to just win it, that'd be fine too. Remember, any of these teams can just win their tourney and get in automatically.
At this point as we head into the next four out, everyone needs to run deep. Tulsa would've been a lot better off had they not dropped their last two games, but in their defense they were against Cincinnati and SMU, the conference's two best squads. They'll have to get revenge on Cincinnati and beat them in the American semis. If they make the finals, they'll have a case to plead. Otherwise, move over.
It's really unfortunate that Belmont had to sink Murray St. They never lost in conference play, but because they lost in the tournament, there's not much to talk about. They have a strong record, but they haven't really beaten anyone. Do they deserve a spot? Yes, they are by far the Ohio Valley's best team. But, on paper basically every other bubble team has them beat. If a good amount of the teams above them fall in the opening round of their tournaments, Murray St could sneak up and be in the discussion. But for now, probably not.
If Illinois beats Michigan (which is a must), they then must play Wisconsin. There's good news and bad news with that. The bad is that they play Wisconsin. The good is that Wisconsin is such a strong team that if the Illini find a way to win, they can move way up and probably in the field- even if they lose in the semifinals. A win over Wisconsin would carry that much weight.
For Rhode Island, Richmond, Stanford, and Vanderbilt, the message is simple. Win the tournament. If not, make the finals and pray. That's the situation they're all in. Stanford absolutely fell apart, losing seven of ten when they appeared to be a tournament team at one point in time. Rhode Island are lacking any quality wins, and Richmond and Vandy have come out of nowhere but still have work to do.
And then there's Boise St and Stephen F. Austin, the current auto-bids that could win at-large with a loss in their conference tournaments. Boise has a much, much higher chance of getting in, as they come from a multiple-bid league (the Mountain West) and have a pretty strong resume overall. If they don't win their tournament, the bubble would actually expand by one spot should San Diego St or Colorado St win (the two most likely teams), but Boise St would probably just take an at-large since they were the regular season champions. They're ranked right now, and have swept San Diego St. I think Boise probably gets in one way or the other.
And then there's SFA. Last year, a very similar SFA team beat VCU in March Madness. Now they're back, and have the best resume out of the strong 1-bid league teams (Murray St, Iona, Harvard, etc). They are 27-4, and three of their losses have come to very good teams, Northern Iowa (an overtime loss), Baylor, and Xavier. They've got three top-100 wins, and an RPI of 46 which puts them slightly above the average bubble team in that category. They boast great offensive numbers, ranking top 15 in points scored, #1 in assists in all of college basketball, and a top 10 field goal percentage. This is an experienced team, and if any team from a traditional one-bid league gets in, it'd be them although the odds aren't great.
That's the overview of the bubble right now. Over the next few days, many teams will play themselves in, and more will play themselves out. Enjoy the madness.
First of all, it's important to know how many spots are realistically available. There are 68 teams in the tournament, and 32 are decided by automatic bids. That leaves 36 spots for at-large bids. I would say that in my recent bracket, every team in the top nine seeds and Davidson, the first 10 seed, are locks for the tournament. That's 37 teams. However, ten of those teams are currently leading conferences, so there's 27 more teams. 36-27= 9, so there are nine remaining spots. I believe there are 22 teams with a possibility of getting those spots. They are as follows:
Current 10 seeds: Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
Current 11 seeds: LSU, Temple, Texas, BYU
Current 12 seeds: Texas A&M, Purdue
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Barely Hanging: Richmond, Stanford, Vanderbilt
Current Auto-bids if they lose their conference tournament: #11 Boise St, #12 Stephen F. Austin
So those are the teams I think stand a chance at claiming the last few spots. 20 schools playing for nine spots, plus two more if they don't get auto-bids. However, the tough part is that as I talked about a couple days ago in "Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?" http://toplevelsports.blogspot.com/2015/03/are-conference-tournaments-bad-for.html, there are potential bid thieves who may shrink that magic number of nine even lower, making the bubble race ever the tighter and more difficult to decide who makes it in and who doesn't.
The first two teams on the list are Colorado St, and Oklahoma St, and I'd say both of them are looking at 90+% odds at making the field. It's going to be really difficult for them not to make the field, so much so that a win for either in their conference tournament would make them a lock. Colorado St has Fresno St in their first round, and should easily win. However, if they lose, and a lot of other people win, and the bid thieves take a few spots, it's feasible that they could find themselves closer to the bubble. However, I think that even in a down year for the Mountain West, 13-5 is no joke. They're a 26 win team with an RPI of 26, which in a power conference would make them a top 5 seed no doubt. For proof, see Notre Dame, a 26-5 (same record as Colorado St) RPI 24 team that I have as a 3. The point is, in my book they're a lock, but I'm a tad unsure of the committee, which has them as the top team on the bubble.
Oklahoma St had me genuinely scared for a while, and I thought they easily could have been the next Texas when they went on their four game losing streak in the second half of February, but by beating TCU and finishing 8-10 in the Big 12, they saved themselves from being a team walking the line of in and out. They get #15 Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, and while a win would certainly do the job, even a respectable loss should keep them safe.
Then we have the two SEC teams in very similar positions, Ole Miss and LSU. The Rebels are trending downwards after losing three of their last four, while LSU put themselves in good position with a win over #21 Arkansas to finish the regular season. A win would put each of these teams in, but while a loss would be okay for Colorado St and Oklahoma St, an opening round loss would put these teams in danger.
The Temple Owls may suffer a bit in the eyes of the committee because while the American Conference is solid and is probably a 3-bid league, they don't have the depth of a major conference. So while they finished the year with three wins over Houston, ECU, and UConn, none of them are that good. Temple holds the four seed in the conference tournament and will play the five seed Memphis. Temple is the first team that actually needs to win their opening round matchup. If they don't, it will be a matter of how much the committee values a 25-point win over Kansas, because it's by far their best win.
Texas should be rewarded for salvaging a season that once looked to be long gone. By winning their last two games against Baylor and Kansas St, they went from the first four out into the last four in, and as long as they beat Texas Tech, they will be in good position to advance, because they'll have an RPI around 40, a top 15 SOS number in the hardest conferences, 20 wins, and only one loss outside of the RPI top 50, which was to fellow bubble team Stanford. By numbers alone, the Longhorns look good.
BYU has no more games to play, but their away win against Gonzaga near the end of the regular season singlehandedly put them into good standing. BYU is a strong team with a few great players in Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth, that any team would be scared of in the Big Dance. All they lacked was a signature win, and that's what they got. They can't lose any more games, so they can't play themselves out of the tournament. They've done well getting on the right side of the bubble, but anything can happen now that their fate is in other teams' hands.
Texas A&M is in a difficult position because typically 20-win teams from traditionally strong conferences would be feeling pretty comfortable, but for a team in a potential 6-bid league, they haven't really beaten anyone. Their only wins against potential tournament teams came in a sweep of LSU. Besides that, their next highest RPI victory is #76 Florida, and they have a losing record. They absolutely must beat Auburn, and then will play LSU. If they complete the Tiger trifecta, they'll be dancing. Any less and I don't think it happens.
Purdue has been confusing for their last couple months because of the clash of their great conference record and 219 non-conference SOS. However, after losing two of three down the stretch they're going to need to make a statement in the conference tournament or be passed up. It'd be a lot easier if they hadn't lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb...they'll probably play Iowa in the Big Ten quarterfinals, and it's a must win for sure. Too bad Iowa's a great team, and Purdue can't make it without a win.
-------------------------------------------------The Bubble--------------------------------------------
UCLA looked hopeless for the first half of the season, but were jumpstarted after knocking off Utah. The Bruins have been up and down since then, and have won their last three since losing the two prior. They're a true bubble team, in a decent conference with decent numbers, a 12-loss record, but a couple good wins. They need to beat USC, but that might not be enough. The only problem is that their potential semifinal matchup is against Arizona. I don't think they can win that game, and I think they'll end up in the first four out on Selection Sunday.
Miami (Fl) is testing how far a win over Duke can carry a bubble team. Duke and NC State are their best wins, but they could've been in much better position if they could've beaten Virginia, Notre Dame, or Louisville, all of whom they played close. 20 and 28 point home losses to Georgia Tech and Eastern Kentucky aren't helping the cause, either. Ok, let's face it, if those two losses don't happen their in the field. They must beat Virginia Tech, and then they'll probably need to beat Notre Dame as well.
Indiana was an 8 seed in my first bracketology, but they've lost 8 of 12 down the stretch, and are in free fall. To save their year, they will need to beat both Northwestern and a really good Maryland team. It might seem unfair, but with so many teams competing for a limited number of spots, if they don't go deep, someone else will.
Old Dominion would probably just be best winning the Conference-USA tournament, as they have the best shot of any bubble team in winning their tourney. They were a solid middle-seed when conference play started, but silly losses have put them in their position. The issue is that I'm not sure the committee will give C-USA a second bid. They'd need at least a trip to the title game to stand a chance, but if they want to just win it, that'd be fine too. Remember, any of these teams can just win their tourney and get in automatically.
At this point as we head into the next four out, everyone needs to run deep. Tulsa would've been a lot better off had they not dropped their last two games, but in their defense they were against Cincinnati and SMU, the conference's two best squads. They'll have to get revenge on Cincinnati and beat them in the American semis. If they make the finals, they'll have a case to plead. Otherwise, move over.
It's really unfortunate that Belmont had to sink Murray St. They never lost in conference play, but because they lost in the tournament, there's not much to talk about. They have a strong record, but they haven't really beaten anyone. Do they deserve a spot? Yes, they are by far the Ohio Valley's best team. But, on paper basically every other bubble team has them beat. If a good amount of the teams above them fall in the opening round of their tournaments, Murray St could sneak up and be in the discussion. But for now, probably not.
If Illinois beats Michigan (which is a must), they then must play Wisconsin. There's good news and bad news with that. The bad is that they play Wisconsin. The good is that Wisconsin is such a strong team that if the Illini find a way to win, they can move way up and probably in the field- even if they lose in the semifinals. A win over Wisconsin would carry that much weight.
For Rhode Island, Richmond, Stanford, and Vanderbilt, the message is simple. Win the tournament. If not, make the finals and pray. That's the situation they're all in. Stanford absolutely fell apart, losing seven of ten when they appeared to be a tournament team at one point in time. Rhode Island are lacking any quality wins, and Richmond and Vandy have come out of nowhere but still have work to do.
And then there's Boise St and Stephen F. Austin, the current auto-bids that could win at-large with a loss in their conference tournaments. Boise has a much, much higher chance of getting in, as they come from a multiple-bid league (the Mountain West) and have a pretty strong resume overall. If they don't win their tournament, the bubble would actually expand by one spot should San Diego St or Colorado St win (the two most likely teams), but Boise St would probably just take an at-large since they were the regular season champions. They're ranked right now, and have swept San Diego St. I think Boise probably gets in one way or the other.
And then there's SFA. Last year, a very similar SFA team beat VCU in March Madness. Now they're back, and have the best resume out of the strong 1-bid league teams (Murray St, Iona, Harvard, etc). They are 27-4, and three of their losses have come to very good teams, Northern Iowa (an overtime loss), Baylor, and Xavier. They've got three top-100 wins, and an RPI of 46 which puts them slightly above the average bubble team in that category. They boast great offensive numbers, ranking top 15 in points scored, #1 in assists in all of college basketball, and a top 10 field goal percentage. This is an experienced team, and if any team from a traditional one-bid league gets in, it'd be them although the odds aren't great.
That's the overview of the bubble right now. Over the next few days, many teams will play themselves in, and more will play themselves out. Enjoy the madness.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Bracketology Week 18 (Mar. 10)
This Championship Week edition of Connorackerology bases its bracket on games played through Mar. 9
Five days. That's it. In just five days the selection committee will make the final call on which schools make March Madness. That means for the teams on the bubble, there's only a couple games left to make an impression. At this stage, wins are huge, and losses are killer. Bubble teams simply can not afford to go down in the opening round of their conference tournament, because if they do, they'll earn a one-way ticket to the NIT, the national invitational tournament, or as I like to call it, the Not In Tournament.
Teams bolded and underlined in the bracket represent teams who have already punched their automatic bid into the field. If a #1 seed in a conference tournament has already lost, the bold team for that conference will be the highest remaining seed in the tournament.
1s: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Villanova
2s: Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Maryland
3s: Kansas, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Louisville
4s: Oklahoma, Baylor, Wichita St, Iowa St
5s: Utah, West Virginia, SMU, Butler
6s: North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence
7s: Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan St, VCU
8s: St. John's, San Diego St, Dayton, Georgia
9s: Xavier, NC State, Oregon, Cincinnati
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: LSU, Temple, Boise St, Texas, Texas A&M
12s: Purdue, BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, Georgia St
14s: UC Davis, Northeastern, South Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, St. Francis BRK, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Need a Miracle: Richmond, Green Bay, Buffalo, Vanderbilt
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
SEC: 6
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Pac 12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
WCC: 2
21 Conferences: 1
8s: St. John's, San Diego St, Dayton, Georgia
9s: Xavier, NC State, Oregon, Cincinnati
10s: Davidson, Colorado St, Oklahoma St, Ole Miss
11s: LSU, Temple, Boise St, Texas, Texas A&M
12s: Purdue, BYU, Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, Wofford
13s: Valparaiso, Harvard, Central Michigan, Georgia St
14s: UC Davis, Northeastern, South Dakota St, NC Central
15s: Belmont, New Mexico St, Albany, Coastal Carolina
16s: North Florida, Lafayette, Montana, Manhattan, St. Francis BRK, Texas Southern
On the Outside Looking In:
First Four Out: UCLA, Miami (Fl), Indiana, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Murray St, Illinois, Rhode Island
Need a Miracle: Richmond, Green Bay, Buffalo, Vanderbilt
Bids by Conference:
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6
SEC: 6
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Pac 12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
WCC: 2
21 Conferences: 1
Monday, March 9, 2015
Are Conference Tournaments Bad for College Basketball?
We're midway through Championship Week, and many teams have already won their spot in the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. Conference tournament week is a huge deal, as it determines roughly half the March Madness and can make or break many teams' resumes as they vie for the at large spots. However, does this prelude to the Big Dance improve the sport as a whole, or does it do more bad than good?
It really depends on who you ask, but generally conference tournaments hurt good teams, especially mid-majors, while coming to the rescue of teams who have no business playing in the postseason. Their are three main reasons why this is the case, and why conference tournaments can be a detriment to the sport.
The main reason why this happens is because roughly two-thirds of conferences are what are referred to as one bid leagues. This means that 95% of the time only one team from these conferences will go dancing in March. As a whole the conference is too weak to receive multiple bids in the committee's eyes, and that only changes when a team has an exceptional record, losing no more than a couple games in the entire season, and then loses in the conference tournament. But even then, those teams don't usually make the field.
You could take my word that this is the case, but here are a few times this has happened in just the last few seasons. In 2012, a 27-6 Drexel team missed the tournament. In 2013, 26-6 Louisiana Tech and 27-4 Stephen F. Austin missed the field. Just last year, a 24-6 Green Bay team viewed as a favorite to upset a big name team didn't make the final cut, along with 27-6 Toledo and 26-6 Southern Miss. These teams dominated their conferences, and then because of one loss, lost everything they worked for, and went to the NIT. Keep in mind those six teams were only from the last few years, and there were even more 25 win schools I didn't mention. This year has already claimed a victim. When the former #25 Murray State lost the Ohio Valley championship game on Saturday to Belmont, it's odds of making the tournament were severely reduced. They still have a chance, but more than likely, the 27-5 Racers won't be racing into the Big Dance.
The next way conference tournaments may harm the sport goes along with my last point. Conference tournaments make March Madness less competitive. Could you imagine what would happen if that these talented mid-major teams made the big dance instead of the far worse teams that took their place away (with the exception of Drexel, who lost to VCU)? The tournament would be even more competitive, and we'd be seeing even more potential cinderella squads than we already do. Can you imagine seeing 14 seeds with the skill of 12s and 13s? Because that's the kind of situation we'd have if the best team from each conference made the field. There would be more potential for upsets, and many more good games in general.
However, the way it currently is, any team can win three or four games in their conference tournament and make March Madness, even if they had zero wins prior to the tournament. While that's never happened, it's technically possible. Here are a few of the worst teams to make the tournament in recent years, along with the first-place teams in those divisions that failed to make it because of a bad team's lucky run. In 2014, Cal Poly made the tournament at a disgusting 13-19 over a 23-11 UC Irvine. In 2013, Liberty, with a horrendous 15-20 record, went dancing instead of 19-12 Charleston Southern. It doesn't happen every year, but many times teams with losing records actually make the field. Just an hour before I write this, now 28-6 Wofford barely escaped with the Southern Conference bid against a Furman team who will end its season 11-22. Furman was actually the worst team in the conference in the regular season (5-13 in the league), but they somehow managed to win three games in the tournament, and only fell by three points to the Wofford Terriers, a future 12 or 13 seed. See? It happens more than you think. And although I don't know for sure, I'd venture to say the #1 seed only wins the conference tournament a maximum 50% of the time. Probably less.
Last but not least, the third way conference tournaments hurt college basketball is through what are known as "bid thieves", and in some ways are even worse than teams that steal a bid from their conference's strong mid-major. These teams steal bids, but in a far more indirect, insidious way. These are the guys who are to blame when experts talk about a "bursting bubble."
Bid thieves typically come from conferences that receive multiple bids into the NCAA tournament. They win their conference tournament, earning an automatic bid, even though they are undeserving. Here's the catch, though: since they come from a good conference, the teams from that conference that were supposed to make the tournament still do, but now the team that was supposed to take the auto-bid takes earns an at-large instead. Now there is one less at-large bid up for grabs, and the bubble shrinks. The more times this happens in a year, the more bubble teams lose their spot in the field. Regardless of how they play, if they don't get their automatic bid, they'll see their at-large hopes vanish before their vary eyes. Teams this year that could play that spoiler role include UConn, Memphis, Kansas State, Pitt, Michigan, Florida, and Wyoming among many others, but as ESPN's Eamonn Brennan has said, "it could be anyone. Anywhere."
But surely there's a lot of good that comes from conference tournaments too, right? Of course. If there wasn't, we would've done away with them a while ago. First off, they're really exciting. The fact that anyone can win makes every game crucial, especially with bubble teams and teams from lower conferences. It puts the spotlight on these teams and really sets the stage for the real tournament. It also gives the bad teams something to play for. There would be no point for teams with no realistic chance at winning their conference to keep playing late in the season, but with conference tournaments, everyone feels they have a chance, even though it basically turns the entire regular season into a fight for conference tournament seeding in lower conferences. Lastly, conference tournaments generate a lot of revenue, and we all know the people in power see nothing but green.
What would I do? It's difficult, because both sides have some good points and make sense. However, personally I believe all conferences should switch to the system the Ivy League uses, where the regular season champion earns the automatic bid, and any tie is decided by a championship game between the tied teams. This way the best team from every conference advances, and good teams don't miss the tournament like Iona, who just fell to Manhattan, and at 26-8 has little to no chance of claiming a second bid for the MAAC. At least at 19-13 Manhattan is a decent team with a strong leader in Emmy Andujar.
But wait! Doesn't that cut a week or two from the season? What happens to that time? That one's easy. Just add a couple more non-conference games into the schedule, and everything should work out fine. Personally, I would throw these games in the middle of conference play, to give bubble teams and mid-majors opportunities to strengthen their resumes right as people start to seriously talk about bracketology and who's on what side of the bubble. ESPN ran something called Bracket Buster Weekend up to 2013 where there was a weekend when all the top mid-majors played each other to improve their resumes and get national attention. This would be kind of like that, except it would last a week or two, and any team could schedule games in that time, not just mid-majors. Oh, and of course it wouldn't be run by ESPN, the teams should get to decide their own opponents.
So, what do you think about these tournaments? Should we keep them, modify them, or get rid of them altogether? Comments and feedback are welcome.
Connor
It really depends on who you ask, but generally conference tournaments hurt good teams, especially mid-majors, while coming to the rescue of teams who have no business playing in the postseason. Their are three main reasons why this is the case, and why conference tournaments can be a detriment to the sport.
The main reason why this happens is because roughly two-thirds of conferences are what are referred to as one bid leagues. This means that 95% of the time only one team from these conferences will go dancing in March. As a whole the conference is too weak to receive multiple bids in the committee's eyes, and that only changes when a team has an exceptional record, losing no more than a couple games in the entire season, and then loses in the conference tournament. But even then, those teams don't usually make the field.
You could take my word that this is the case, but here are a few times this has happened in just the last few seasons. In 2012, a 27-6 Drexel team missed the tournament. In 2013, 26-6 Louisiana Tech and 27-4 Stephen F. Austin missed the field. Just last year, a 24-6 Green Bay team viewed as a favorite to upset a big name team didn't make the final cut, along with 27-6 Toledo and 26-6 Southern Miss. These teams dominated their conferences, and then because of one loss, lost everything they worked for, and went to the NIT. Keep in mind those six teams were only from the last few years, and there were even more 25 win schools I didn't mention. This year has already claimed a victim. When the former #25 Murray State lost the Ohio Valley championship game on Saturday to Belmont, it's odds of making the tournament were severely reduced. They still have a chance, but more than likely, the 27-5 Racers won't be racing into the Big Dance.
The next way conference tournaments may harm the sport goes along with my last point. Conference tournaments make March Madness less competitive. Could you imagine what would happen if that these talented mid-major teams made the big dance instead of the far worse teams that took their place away (with the exception of Drexel, who lost to VCU)? The tournament would be even more competitive, and we'd be seeing even more potential cinderella squads than we already do. Can you imagine seeing 14 seeds with the skill of 12s and 13s? Because that's the kind of situation we'd have if the best team from each conference made the field. There would be more potential for upsets, and many more good games in general.
However, the way it currently is, any team can win three or four games in their conference tournament and make March Madness, even if they had zero wins prior to the tournament. While that's never happened, it's technically possible. Here are a few of the worst teams to make the tournament in recent years, along with the first-place teams in those divisions that failed to make it because of a bad team's lucky run. In 2014, Cal Poly made the tournament at a disgusting 13-19 over a 23-11 UC Irvine. In 2013, Liberty, with a horrendous 15-20 record, went dancing instead of 19-12 Charleston Southern. It doesn't happen every year, but many times teams with losing records actually make the field. Just an hour before I write this, now 28-6 Wofford barely escaped with the Southern Conference bid against a Furman team who will end its season 11-22. Furman was actually the worst team in the conference in the regular season (5-13 in the league), but they somehow managed to win three games in the tournament, and only fell by three points to the Wofford Terriers, a future 12 or 13 seed. See? It happens more than you think. And although I don't know for sure, I'd venture to say the #1 seed only wins the conference tournament a maximum 50% of the time. Probably less.
Last but not least, the third way conference tournaments hurt college basketball is through what are known as "bid thieves", and in some ways are even worse than teams that steal a bid from their conference's strong mid-major. These teams steal bids, but in a far more indirect, insidious way. These are the guys who are to blame when experts talk about a "bursting bubble."
Bid thieves typically come from conferences that receive multiple bids into the NCAA tournament. They win their conference tournament, earning an automatic bid, even though they are undeserving. Here's the catch, though: since they come from a good conference, the teams from that conference that were supposed to make the tournament still do, but now the team that was supposed to take the auto-bid takes earns an at-large instead. Now there is one less at-large bid up for grabs, and the bubble shrinks. The more times this happens in a year, the more bubble teams lose their spot in the field. Regardless of how they play, if they don't get their automatic bid, they'll see their at-large hopes vanish before their vary eyes. Teams this year that could play that spoiler role include UConn, Memphis, Kansas State, Pitt, Michigan, Florida, and Wyoming among many others, but as ESPN's Eamonn Brennan has said, "it could be anyone. Anywhere."
But surely there's a lot of good that comes from conference tournaments too, right? Of course. If there wasn't, we would've done away with them a while ago. First off, they're really exciting. The fact that anyone can win makes every game crucial, especially with bubble teams and teams from lower conferences. It puts the spotlight on these teams and really sets the stage for the real tournament. It also gives the bad teams something to play for. There would be no point for teams with no realistic chance at winning their conference to keep playing late in the season, but with conference tournaments, everyone feels they have a chance, even though it basically turns the entire regular season into a fight for conference tournament seeding in lower conferences. Lastly, conference tournaments generate a lot of revenue, and we all know the people in power see nothing but green.
What would I do? It's difficult, because both sides have some good points and make sense. However, personally I believe all conferences should switch to the system the Ivy League uses, where the regular season champion earns the automatic bid, and any tie is decided by a championship game between the tied teams. This way the best team from every conference advances, and good teams don't miss the tournament like Iona, who just fell to Manhattan, and at 26-8 has little to no chance of claiming a second bid for the MAAC. At least at 19-13 Manhattan is a decent team with a strong leader in Emmy Andujar.
But wait! Doesn't that cut a week or two from the season? What happens to that time? That one's easy. Just add a couple more non-conference games into the schedule, and everything should work out fine. Personally, I would throw these games in the middle of conference play, to give bubble teams and mid-majors opportunities to strengthen their resumes right as people start to seriously talk about bracketology and who's on what side of the bubble. ESPN ran something called Bracket Buster Weekend up to 2013 where there was a weekend when all the top mid-majors played each other to improve their resumes and get national attention. This would be kind of like that, except it would last a week or two, and any team could schedule games in that time, not just mid-majors. Oh, and of course it wouldn't be run by ESPN, the teams should get to decide their own opponents.
So, what do you think about these tournaments? Should we keep them, modify them, or get rid of them altogether? Comments and feedback are welcome.
Connor
Sunday, March 8, 2015
NCAAB Conference Tournament Picks
I know #25 Murray State already lost to Belmont last night, earning the Bruins the first bid to the NCAA tournament, and that Coastal Carolina just took down the Big South bid, but there are still 30 conferences with their auto-bids undecided and 29 conference tournaments (the Ivy League gives their bid to the regular season champion, and this year it will go down to a tiebreaker game between Harvard and Yale). Here are my predictions for the conference tournaments for every other league.
American: SMU
American East: Albany
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: North Florida
Atlantic 10: Dayton
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Villanova
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big Ten: Maryland
Big West: UC Davis
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Boise St
Northeast: St. Francis (NY)
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac-12: Arizona
Patriot: Lafayette
SEC: Kentucky
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: South Dakota St
SWAC: Texas Southern
WAC: New Mexico St
WCC: Gonzaga
American: SMU
American East: Albany
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: North Florida
Atlantic 10: Dayton
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Villanova
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big Ten: Maryland
Big West: UC Davis
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Boise St
Northeast: St. Francis (NY)
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac-12: Arizona
Patriot: Lafayette
SEC: Kentucky
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: South Dakota St
SWAC: Texas Southern
WAC: New Mexico St
WCC: Gonzaga
Introducing: Top Level Madness 2015
This is a quick update to let everyone know my plans for March Madness this year. Simply put, it's going to be crazy. Starting today and going through the day before March Madness starts (Mar. 18), I will be posting something college basketball themed EVERY DAY. I know this seems crazy, and that I'm setting a really high expectation for myself, but trust me, I already have it all planned. This might mean bracketology, a podcast, an article, or predictions, so be sure to stay tuned daily to see what I'm throwing out there. Once the tournament starts, I'll be giving my thoughts after the conclusion of every round, although knowing me I'll probably have a few rants about my bracket and upsets along the way.
I'm super excited about March Madness this year, as it is always my favorite event of the year and I'm more thrilled than ever to see what madness 2015 has in store.
Stay tuned,
Connor
I'm super excited about March Madness this year, as it is always my favorite event of the year and I'm more thrilled than ever to see what madness 2015 has in store.
Stay tuned,
Connor
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Connoracketology Week 17 (Mar. 4)
This edition of Connoracketology uses games played through March 3rd to determine its seed rankings.
The bubble has shrunk. It's the phrase no one wants fighting for the last few tournament spots wants to hear. But that's exactly what has happened. By taking the lead in their respective conferences, Boise State and Tulsa (two previous bubble teams) have automatic bids at the moment. This means that there are two fewer at-large spots to fight for, meaning no one can afford to lose, or they will fall out of the field. The situation is great for Boise and Tulsa, but for a team like BYU, who just knocked off Gonzaga, it means they still aren't in the field. They would have passed Tulsa had they not had an auto-bid.
Texas saved their season with a come from behind victory over Baylor, but it might be too little too late for the Longhorns, 7-10 in Big 12 play. They might not be the only team that threw their chances away in Big-12 play either. If Oklahoma State loses against TCU, that would make 5 straight losses for the Cowboys, and could put them in the same situation Texas is currently in.
We're getting ever so close to Selection Sunday, now only 11 days away, so I have much more to talk about. However, that will have to wait until the next edition of Bracket Breakdown on Youtube, which I will be releasing tomorrow. For now, here's the bracket.
The bubble has shrunk. It's the phrase no one wants fighting for the last few tournament spots wants to hear. But that's exactly what has happened. By taking the lead in their respective conferences, Boise State and Tulsa (two previous bubble teams) have automatic bids at the moment. This means that there are two fewer at-large spots to fight for, meaning no one can afford to lose, or they will fall out of the field. The situation is great for Boise and Tulsa, but for a team like BYU, who just knocked off Gonzaga, it means they still aren't in the field. They would have passed Tulsa had they not had an auto-bid.
Texas saved their season with a come from behind victory over Baylor, but it might be too little too late for the Longhorns, 7-10 in Big 12 play. They might not be the only team that threw their chances away in Big-12 play either. If Oklahoma State loses against TCU, that would make 5 straight losses for the Cowboys, and could put them in the same situation Texas is currently in.
We're getting ever so close to Selection Sunday, now only 11 days away, so I have much more to talk about. However, that will have to wait until the next edition of Bracket Breakdown on Youtube, which I will be releasing tomorrow. For now, here's the bracket.
Week 17- Mar. 4
1s: Kentucky,
Virginia, Duke, Villanova
2s: Arizona,
Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas
3s: Maryland, Wichita St, Notre Dame, Utah
4s: Northern Iowa, Baylor, Louisville, Oklahoma
5s: Iowa St, North Carolina, Arkansas, West
Virginia
6s: SMU, Ohio
State, Providence, Georgetown
7s: Butler, VCU, Iowa, Dayton
8s: Georgia, St. John’s, Michigan St., San Diego
St
9s: Ole Miss, Oklahoma St., Xavier, Texas A&M
10s: Colorado St, Cincinnati, NC State, Oregon
11s: Indiana, LSU,
Temple, Purdue, Davidson, Boise St,
12s: Tulsa,
Murray St., Harvard, Stephen F. Austin
13s: Iona,
Wofford, Valparaiso, Louisiana Tech
14s: Central Michigan, Georgia St, UC Davis,
South Dakota St
15s: William & Mary, NC Central, High
Point, New Mexico St
16s: Albany, St, Francis, North Florida, Sacramento St, Bucknell, Texas Southern
Entered the field: Boise St., Davidson
Left the field: Texas, Stanford
On the Outside Looking In
First Four Out: BYU, UCLA,
Texas, Stanford
Next Four Out: Illinois, Old
Dominion, Miami (Fl), Rhode Island
Barely Hanging: Pittsburgh,
Richmond, Connecticut, Buffalo
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
American: 4
Atlantic-10: 3
Mountain West: 3
Pac-12: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
22 Conferences: 1
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