College Football Playoff Thoughts

     The college football regular season is nearly over, and all the talk is about which four teams will advance to the new playoffs.  It's time to look at each team's resume and determine who are the best teams in the country, and who will compete in the first ever playoff to determine a national champion.  I have my own opinions about who the best teams are, and I'm going to share my thoughts on the system as a whole, the criterion for which the teams should be chosen, how I feel about certain teams, and who should advance to the national semifinals under different circumstances.
     First off, the playoff system itself is a decent system, and probably better than the BCS system in that actual people will have the ability to rank teams, but still falls to the same flaws the BCS experienced.  Namely, there's still going to be teams that get snubbed.  A main idea of the playoff system was to eliminate the #3 team in the country from complaining about how unfair the system was, and how they deserve a chance to win the national championship.  However, in actuality the same thing will occur this year, and now teams ranked fifth, sixth, seventh, and potentially anywhere in the top ten will feel they have earned a spot in the top four.  Regardless of the system, someone's always going to be unhappy, and this problem stems from the nature of the sport as a whole.  It isn't the NFL where every team plays a roughly even schedule and the teams with the most wins advance to a playoff.  Additionally, college football simply doesn't have room for a blown up 16 team tournament, or anything like the 68 team bonanza we call March Madness.  And even with 68 teams, good college basketball teams are still snubbed.  The only difference is that a 22-10 bubble team has lost ten games, so it's easier to understand how a few bad losses kept them on the outside looking in.  In college football, a loss or two and its curtains.
     Now this gives the committee a lot to think about, and some really important decisions to make that will undoubtedly be questioned after the fact.  How do they sort through all the numbers and arrive at a conclusion?  Well it comes from a combination of three different things.  The first two are what everyone constantly talks about: the win-loss record, and strength of schedule.  Obviously an 11-1 team is typically better than a 9-3 team when only the records are considered.  The strength of schedule gives teams from powerhouse conferences a higher chance of getting in, since they've worked harder for their wins.  That's why a 9-3 UCLA is ranked so much higher than 11-1 Marshall.  But the third factor is something I'm a big fan of, and something that just generally isn't used as much in decision making, and that's simply the eye test.  How good did a team play in their games, regardless of the final win/loss outcome?  The reason why this parameter is undervalued is simple: it can't be broken down into a single number.  While a team can have a 10-2 record or the fifth best strength of schedule in the nation, there isn't a definitive number that can be placed on how good teams are.  However, this is really important, and probably the biggest thing I look at when determining my perception of a team.  What are their strengths, weaknesses, and how do they play to their strengths and manage weaknesses in game to perform at their highest level.  This is why, as I will mention later, I don't like Florida State as one of the best teams in the nation (or the way they carry themselves, but that's a way different story).
     The committee also has to be very careful not to fall into certain traps that can easily influence their decision-making.  First off, to repeat myself, there is no one deciding factor in telling who's best.  No matter how tempting it may be to judge the team with the biggest number in the win column as best, this is not always the case.  Especially considering some conferences have championship games while others do not, judging solely based on win number is dangerous.  So is deciding that the SEC is the best conference, and therefore must have two teams in the top four.  While the SEC's best have played the best and usually come out on top, only looking at strength of schedule can be dangerous.  Another big mistake is paying too much attention to the AP Top 25 Poll and USA Today Poll.  While these polls do a decent enough job of giving the popular opinion on who the best teams are, and are credible enough since knowledgeable people are voters, they fall into the biggest trap of all.  Rather than base rankings on overall team talent, far too often (nearly all the time) the top teams are judged simply by who hasn't lost for the longest period of time.  The general rule is that any time a ranked team loses, they fall roughly four of five spots, and the next few teams all move up a spot.  If a loss is particularly bad, a team may fall further (see Ole Miss).  This methodology is flawed and makes it near impossible for team A to jump team B in the rankings unless team B loses or team A knocks off a very highly rated team, despite if game by game performance clearly show one team to better than the other.  I think the College Football Playoff Rankings committee has done an excellent job of avoiding this, by controversially moving Alabama and Oregon above undefeated Florida State.
     So enough talk about the system and the committee, and let's get down to the nitty gritty.  Which four teams would I have ranked as the top four prior to the start of this current week?  Well, the same four the committee did, and probably in the same order, and actually the same down through at least the top seven.  I know, what an anti-climax.  The only difference is that I may have slid made Mississippi State my #3 and moved Florida State down to #4 or flipped Ohio State and Baylor at #6 and #7.  But the fact that my thoughts basically match exactly those of the committee is great, especially considering the AP Poll still ranks the 11-0 Florida State Seminoles (Criminoles) #1, and has Baylor leapfrogging TCU at #5, both of which I strongly disagree with.  Here's my breakdown of how this top seven looks, because outside of the top seven no one really stands too much of a chance, especially given UCLA's loss to Stanford on Friday.
     Alabama is the number one simply for how dominant they have been constantly throughout the season, especially on defense, where Nick Saban's teams always shine.  They haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game this year (crazy given how most college games are shootouts).  They've done it in the SEC West, the hardest division of the hardest conference, and recently defeated the then #1 team in the nation in Mississippi State.  Their only loss is on the road by 6 to a strong Ole Miss team.
     Oregon has lit up the scoreboard in another very difficult division, the Pac 12.  No one has been able to slow down Mariota's offense, and they've beat four ranked teams including two in the top ten. Their only loss has been to a 10-2 Arizona team who, at #11, will move into the top ten next week, by seven points.   Another great one-loss team who lost a close one to a very good team.  They deserve their spot.
     Now for the polarizing and undefeated reigning national champions.  I give Florida State tons of credit.  It is so difficult to be undefeated, especially this late in the season.  They have been incredibly resilient, coming back after trailing several games at halftime, and have not let the pressure of going perfect again make them falter.  However, let's look at this team a little closer.  I don't think anyone would argue with me that Florida State plays in the weakest of the big 5 conferences, the ACC.  They are the only ACC team ranked in the top 15 of both the AP rankings and College Football Playoff Rankings, and they haven't beat anyone in the top 20.  Their only ranked wins are an overtime win over #21 Clemson and a 42-31 come from behind victory against #22 Louisville.  Jameis Winston has been nowhere near as good as he was last year.  His TD/Int ratio last season was 40/10, and this year it's 19/13 with two games left before the national semifinalists are announced.  His QB rating has dropped from 184.8 to 147.3.  Now to take the focus off Jameis, because he is just one player, let's look at some of Florida State's scores.  37-31, 56-41, 31-27, 30-26, 20-17.  These are games against unranked opponents, and as you've probably noticed, are really close, except for one exception, where they still allowed 41 and had to come from behind to beat a 6-5 NC State team.  As you can see, they've been barely escaping wins week in and week out, and are by no means the best team in the nation.
     Mississippi State is quite simply a less dominant version of Alabama.  Also in the SEC West, they've defeated many of the same opponents, and have also been very strong defensively.  Now looking back on it, I think I would throw them at #3, because their only loss was by five points on the road against #1 Alabama, and since when is that a bad loss?  That's about the best loss any team could possibly have.
     Now outside of the top four there are three teams that still remain strongly in contention.  I'll talk about Baylor and TCU together because of how similar they are.  #5 TCU (10-1) and #7 Baylor (9-1) are very similar, in fact almost as similar as two teams can get in terms of play style, record, and schedule.  They both play in the Big 12, so they both play the same conference opponents.  The only difference is that TCU has already beaten #12 Kansas State, who Baylor has not yet played, and beat West Virginia, a once ranked team, whom Baylor lost to.  Also, TCU took down #18 Minnesota 30-7 out of conference while Baylor was beating up on Northwestern State and Buffalo.  So since they are so similar, yet TCU has three more good wins, what are we debating here?  That's what you'd think until you heard that Baylor beat TCU.  Thus begins the long argument of schedule vs. head to head.
     Does the fact that Baylor defeated TCU when they played supersede TCU's better overall resume?  This is the big debate going on right now.  This is a great example of how just looking at the wins can be misleading, and how everyone that says "the only thing that matters is the number in the W column" is so wrong.  The game was 61-58, and Baylor was home.  The home team should always be expected to win a dead even game, and they did.  The line on the game ended up with Baylor as seven point favorites.  TCU covered the spread, put up 58 points, and led for the majority of the game.  Nothing in that game suggests that if TCU was home, or even on a neutral field, that TCU wouldn't be favored to win or wouldn't win a majority of the time.  Now the question becomes this: if Baylor wins their last two games and takes the Big 12 title, beating Kansas State in doing so, do they then jump TCU?  My answer is still no, not unless TCU loses.  Their win against Minnesota, road win against West Virginia, and overall play including their thrashing of Oklahoma State, all combined are worth more to me than a three point away loss to Baylor.
     The final team with a realistic chance is Ohio State, and the Urban Meyer led team has managed to be in the running once again.  The 10-1 Buckeyes have defeated #10 Michigan State and #18 Minnesota, both on the road.  However, the Big Ten is not as strong as the SEC, Pac 12, or Big 12, and their loss to Virginia Tech looks bad.  For me, they have the lowest chance of making it, although a win in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin might be enough to turn the tides their way.
     So that's where we are now.  But every team probably won't run the table.  So what happens if teams lose?  Can any of the top four afford a loss and remain in the top four?  I think Alabama can.  They've just been too strong, and with all their wins, a loss against #15 Auburn or #17 Missouri in the SEC title game won't be enough to sink them, especially because they're getting another high-quality win if they beat the team they don't lose to out of Auburn and Missouri.  Losing to both would certainly doom them, but Alabama could probably still finish #3 or #4 with a loss.
     Oregon is an interesting case.  Assuming they win against Oregon State to close out the year, they will play #11 Arizona in the Pac 12 title game, and by that time Arizona will be up to probably #8 or #9 after their win against Arizona State.  A loss to Arizona would still likely take them out (if everyone under them wins out), but if, say, two of the other top teams in the top seven also lose, they could still find a way to sneak in.  However, even more interestingly, if for argument's sake, Oregon, Florida State, and Baylor all lose, the top four would probably look like this: Alabama, Missisippi St, TCU, Ohio State.  But the question is would Arizona's win put them in the discussion for the fourth spot, jumping OSU?  This would give them two wins over Oregon, the only team to defeat the Ducks, and finishing the year with three wins against ranked teams (Utah, Arizona State, Oregon) in a tough conference.  At 11-2, that just might be enough.  Maybe.  But probably not.
     Outside of the top two, everyone else simply needs to win out.  A loss for a top four team throws TCU in the semis, another loss would throw in OSU or Baylor.  The only top team not talked about is #9 Georgia.  They can still pick up a nice win over #16 Georgia Tech, but by not winning the SEC East, they lost out on a huge opportunity.  If Missouri would have lost another game, Georgia would get to play Alabama in the SEC championship, and a win there would have moved them into contention.  Unfortunately, that will not happen, and as long as everyone ahead of them doesn't lose, they probably have less of a chance than Arizona, especially since three SEC teams is out of the question.  Well that's a pretty thorough look into the big question the committee is facing over the coming weeks.  Hopefully the next few games will clarify the picture for them, because they do not want to get this wrong.
     Thanks for reading,
     Connor

Week 13 NFL Picks

     Now normally I wouldn't put out my picks for the week until around Saturday, but since it's Thanksgiving, and there are three Thursday games, I've decided to give all my picks early this week.  At this point in the season, every game means a lot for teams in contention, so let's see who I think gets a big win to help push them towards the playoffs.

     Bears at Lions: Chicago finally won a couple games to break their huge skid.  However, they were both close 21-13 wins against the Vikings and Bucs, not really impressive.  The Lions were destroyed by the Patriots, but that was on the road, and I think they win at home today.  Lions 31-20

     Eagles at Cowboys: This is a huge game and could potentially decide the NFC East.  The Cowboys are coming off a sweep of the Giants, and the Eagles rebounded nicely against the Titans after being demolished by the Packers.  Mark Sanchez is a shaky QB, however.  Advantage Dallas.  Cowboys 28-26

     Seahawks at 49ers: Another huge game, as the loser faces a tough road ahead to a wild card.  With their last three wins all coming by less than seven points, I feel the 49ers are due for a slip-up at some point.  And since the Seahawks just beat the Cardinals, they'll be fired up.  Seahawks 24-20

     Browns at Bills: The Browns deserve a lot of credit for their season, especially winning when they have needed to, such as in New Orleans, which is very difficult.  The Bills have also exceeded expectations, making this game difficult to call.  When in doubt, pick the home team.  Bills 27-24

     Redskins at Colts: Colt McCoy gets the start this week for Jay Gruden's team.  When you change quarterback every other week, guys never get used to playing with each other, and that has really hurt the team.  Plus, they get to play Andrew Luck on the road.  Colts 34-20

     Raiders at Rams: Could the Raiders have a two-game win streak?  There could definitely be harder match ups for them.  The Rams seem to only know how to beat good teams, leaving a window of opportunity for an upset.  However, I don't see it that way.  Rams 17-13

     Panthers at Vikings: The Vikes aren't good by any means, however I just really don't want to pick anyone from the NFC South to win a game and the Purple People Eaters are at home.  Vikings 24-20

     Saints at Steelers: The Saints of all teams have lost three in a row at home.  Now they're being asked to win on the road against a hot team?  Think again.  Steelers 30-20

     Bengals at Buccaneers: The Bengals proved they can win on the road by defeating the Texans last week, and the Bucs are in the NFC South.  'Nuff said.  Bengals 28-13

     Giants at Jaguars:  The Giants almost won against the Cowboys last week, and shout out to Odell Beckham Jr.  From what I've seen from him this season, he is a future pro-bowler, and potential Hall-of-Famer if he can continue to develop.  He can catch anything thrown at him, and us Giants fans have been waiting a long time for a guy who can do that.  Just please beat the Jags.  Please.  Giants 31-20

     Chargers at Ravens: The Chargers have looked awfully shaky since their strong September, but have still managed to retain a 7-4 record, same as Baltimore.  However, Baltimore has looked much better, and I like them at home in a big AFC wild card matchup.  Ravens 24-16

     Titans at Texans: The Texans absolutely need this win to remain alive.  Good news for them, they get to play the 2-9 struggling Titans.  J.J. Watt had a field day last time he played Zach Mettenberger, and I think there'll be a repeat performance in the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has finally shaved). Texans 27-14.

     Cardinals at Falcons: The Cardinals are struggling on offense without Carson Palmer, and took their second loss of the season against the Seahawks last week.  The Falcons are not near as good as the Seahawks though, especially on defense.  I think the Cardinals hit 10 wins this week, being the first team to do so.  Cardinals 23-17

     Patriots at Packers: Wow, what a game this will be.  How this game didn't make primetime I will never know.  At this stage of the season, this looks like the Super Bowl matchup.  These are the hottest two teams in the league, and have both been tearing opponents apart.  The Packers have been incredible at home, which gives them the edge in my book.  Expect a great game.  Packers 34-31

     Broncos at Chiefs: The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season, but only 2-3 on the road.  This is a big game as the winner takes control of the division.  I really don't know with this one.  I guess I'm going with the numbers and Peyton's road struggles for this game.  Chiefs 31-30

     Dolphins at Jets: Geno Smith gets another chance this week in a horrible Monday night matchup.  I'm going to make this brief: it doesn't matter who the Jets start at QB, they aren't winning.  Dolphins 27-10

     That's it for this week's picks.  Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.  We all have a lot to be thankful for, including the great world of sports.

     Connor

Analyzing Cavaliers' Early Season Struggles

     One of the biggest early storylines of this NBA season has been how the Cavaliers have struggled to win games and play like the super team they are supposed to be.  Now obviously any LeBron-led team is going to face tons of media attention and every story will be blown out of proportion.  However, as the Cavs currently sit 5-7 and are on a three game losing streak, it is about the time to start asking the questions of just what is going wrong, and what needs to be done for the Cavs to get back on track, especially considering their championship expectations.

     First off, we all need to be reminded that there are still 70 games to play, and that nothing should be taken too seriously at this point.  After all, more than half of the team was playing elsewhere last season, so the team chemistry just isn't there yet, and probably won't be for at least another few weeks.  It's a work in progress.  Additionally, let's remember that the 2010 Miami Heat, fresh off all the hype of that big three, only started 8-9, which is comparable to where the Cavaliers are now.  Still, this team probably isn't as talented as the Heat were, and if they don't fix their many problems quickly, the pressure on them will only build, making it even harder for them to get on track.

     The first main issue for the Cavs is communication.  Now as I have already stated this will improve over time, or at least it should, but in their current state the Cavs just aren't working well together.  Far too often on offense either Kyrie Irving or LeBron will hold the ball for the majority of the shot clock before settling for a low percentage shot.  A large reason for why this happens is that the stars on the team probably are not confident in the abilities of the role players on the team, and feel like they have to everything themselves.  This leads to games where the Cavaliers have single digit assists.

     Similarly, they have a large number of turnovers that aren't necessary, and could easily be eliminated by just having teammates on the same page.  The ball shouldn't be thrown into the stands multiple times a game.

     Next, and this is essential, Kevin Love needs to be way more involved in the offense.  From an offensive standpoint this season, it looks like there's only a big two of LeBron and Kyrie.  For a guy who was a top five scorer in the league last season, Love doesn't get the ball nearly enough.  Love only shoots 13 times per game, while LeBron averages 19 and Kyrie shoots 16 times per contest.  And because he isn't a primary ball handler,

Love's time with the ball is minimal.

     Additionally, Love has taken roughly 40% of his shots from behind the three point line.  Love is a strong shooter, and his long range ability plays a big part into how strong he can be offensively, but he needs to work in the post more.  The Cavs need more points in the paint to keep defenses guessing, and Love is a big part of that.  This is the first time in his career Love hasn't been the primary focus of his team's offense, and the Cavs must adjust to get him more involved. 

     Speaking of the post and points in the paint, the interior defense for the Cavaliers may very well be the weakest part of their team.  As I stated back in August in my blog debating if the Cavs are title favorites, they don't have a real defensive presence inside the paint.  Center Anderson Varejao has a career blocks average of only .7, and Kevin Love ranks in the bottom five in the league in opponent field goal percentage when in the paint.  The help defense is also lacking down low.  No one on the team is really known for being a lockdown defender.

     Logically, it makes sense that the closer you are to the basket, the easier it is to score.  The Cavs are making it real easy for other teams to score against them.  The Cavaliers allow 102.7 points per game, sixth most in the league, and allow teams to shoot 47.7% from the field, or third worst in the NBA.  The Cavs allow 43 points per game in the paint, a full four more than they did last year.  The Cavaliers won't be an elite team until they can get the defense sorted out.

     Also, the lack of size on the team and interior defense has really hurt the Cavs in terms of rebounding.  For a team that LeBron said in the preseason could outbound their opponents in all 82 games, ranking 23rd in the NBA in rebounds per game must be a huge disappointment.

     Another important reason for the surprise 5-7 record is the fact that coach David Blatt isn't coaching.  Now this isn't entirely his fault- LeBron is the coach of the Cavaliers.  During timeouts, LeBron is in the middle of the huddle, talking to the team about changes they need to make and getting the team fired up.  Blatt is usually either trying to squeeze his way into the huddle or is busy drawing Xs and Os on the bench.  While James is a great leader and probably a future coach, Blatt needs to take control.  He's the one who's been coaching for 20 years now, and has won numerous titles and awards over his career, most recently the 2014 Euroleague and Euroleague Coach of the Year with Maccabi Tel Aviv, where he had a 225-55 record over five seasons.

     Word on the street is that Blatt is finding it hard adjusting to living and coaching in the states, and that's very understandable.  The lifestyle and the basketball are both very different.  Additionally, the expectations set for him were overwhelming and ridiculous.  However, it is mandatory he adapts quickly and takes charge of the team and gets the players to trust him.

     Lastly is probably the most important reason of all for the Cavs' struggles.  It's quite simple really: the bench needs to score.  Here's a few numbers to think about.  LeBron James: 24.7 points per game.  Kyrie Irving: 21.8 points per game.  The entire Cavs bench: 21.7 points per game.  Those numbers are crazy.  LeBron and Kyrie alone each have more points than the entire bench and along with Kevin Love, the big three are responsible for over 60% of the team's scoring.  The Cavs' bench is last in the league in scoring, a full two points behind the Rockets, who sit in 29th.

     The bench is supposed to provide relief for the starters and be able to keep games close while the stars rest.  However, there's basically no relief here, because the bench is so weak, and so thin.  After the starting five, Dion Waiters is the sixth man.  He's a developing talent, and has played decent in his role.  The same goes for Tristan Thompson, the first forward off the bench.  Neither one is a real electric scorer, but they're both solid.  However, there's no one after that.  Joe Harris is a rookie guard who just isn't good right now.  Matthew Dellavedova, a shaky backup point guard already, is hurt, and besides the aforementioned Thompson, there's no other forwards off the bench.  Brendan Haywood would be the backup center, but he's only played in three games.  That leaves them with no real scorers off the bench, and basically an eight man rotation.

     This is the real problem with the concept of a big three.  Most of a teams salary is spent on only a quarter of the team, and then there isn't anyone that good to provide relief for when the stars are tired, injured, or in foul trouble.  The rest of the starters are Shawn Marion (okay but old), and Anderson Varejao, who has played well so far, but judging by recent years it's only a matter of time before he's injured.  That would really kill the team.

     The good news for the Cavaliers is that despite all the issues they have, the season is really long.  Longer than any other regular season of basketball in the world.  Sometime between now and April, these problems should be fixed, and most likely closer to now than April.  Just because of all the talent in the big three, no matter how bad they perform this season, they shouldn't get any less than 50 wins.  Maybe it isn't the 65 they were shooting for before the seasons tatted, but it's still good enough for at worst the 4 or 5 seed in the east, and again probably higher.

     However, for their fans to stop panicking and for the team to gain some

confidence, these problems should be fixed as quickly as possible.

     Thanks for reading,

      Connor

NFL Week 12 Picks

     Week 12 is here, and there are a few big games which will hopefully clarify the playoff picture, and separate the real contenders from the rest of the league.  In the Thursday night game, the Raiders actually won!  Derek Carr's celebrations were hilarious and it really showed how desperate they were for a win (even though they almost blew it celebrating and being 20 yards offsides when the game wasn't over, but don't blame them, they've never been in a position where they might win before so they probably didn't know what to do).  So good for them, I didn't see it coming.  Without further ado, here's my picks this week.

     Browns at Falcons: Now this is a really interesting matchup just because of how irrelevant it might've seemed a few weeks into the year.  The Falcons at 4-6 are somehow playing for the division lead in this one, and despite the Browns being 6-4 and having a great season, they desperately need to keep winning in order to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Falcons are at home, and I think that gets them a much-needed win.  Falcons 27-23

     Buccaneers at Bears: Here's two teams that have played horrible this season but were both able to earn a win last week.  The Bears are playing purely for pride at this point, while the Bucs, at 2-8, are still in the NFC South hunt.  Wait, did I say that correctly?  WOW.  In a division where six wins could send you to the playoffs, the Bucs are still alive and just need to win their division games.  Unfortunately, they are just so weak I can't possibly pick them.  Bears 31-20

     Jaguars at Colts: Seriously?  Does this matchup even need to happen?  And to top it off, the Colts get to be home for this slaughter?  The Colts won 44-17 when Jacksonville was home.  However, the Jaguars are a little better now, and I'll let them off easy hoping the Colts show mercy.  Colts 38-17

     Packers at Vikings: This might as well be renamed Jags-Colts 2.  The only difference is that the pathetic team is home this time.  The Packers won 42-10 at home in this matchup, and are the hottest team in the league at the moment.  They've won six of seven and have scored 108 points in their last two games.  I thought a mercy rule was supposed to kick in at some point?  The Vikings might need one.  Packers 41-16

     Lions at Patriots: Hey, a good game.  Finally.  The 8-2 Patriots host the 7-3 Lions in a game that might give the Patriots some trouble, despite how dominant they have been of late.  The Lions have a strong D, but will need to jump to a quick start on offense and feed Megatron the ball.  Detroit is catching a break that the weather is reasonable, but that'll be one of the only breaks they'll catch in this one.  Patriots 27-14

     Titans at Eagles: I don't know what to say about this one.  Hopefully for Titans fans Mark Sanchez butt fumbles and throws five picks?  That's about all that could save them in Philly.  Eagles 34-17

     Bengals at Texans: The 5-5 Texans are trying to crawl into the AFC Wild Card picture and a win over the unpredictable Bengals would be a great way to do it.  At 6-3-1, the Bengals are smack dab in the middle of the jumbled mess commonly referred to as the AFC North.  The Bengals are usually not a strong road team, and the Texans are riding a bit of confidence after beating the Browns with new quarterback Ryan Mallett, so I'll have to pick the Texans.  Texans 27-24

     Rams at Chargers: The Rams are the best 4-6 team of all-time, no questions asked, no doubt in my mind.  They've beaten the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Broncos this season (along with the Bucs, but who really cares about them), and aren't even .500!  It's so unfortunate that they couldn't pull out close losses against the Eagles and Cowboys and are in the division they're in, because they could run away with the NFC South but will most likely finish last in the NFC West.  My instinct tells me to go with the Rams because of how they tend to beat good teams, and due to how the Chargers have been struggling as of late.  So despite how dumb this might look after the game, I'll trust my gut, and make my big upset pick of the week.  Rams 24-20 

     Cardinals at Seahawks: The 9-1 Cardinals proved once again they can win without Carson Palmer in their impressive win over the Lions, but let's be real here.  It's just too tough to win in Seattle for me to pick against the Seahawks, even knowing how good the Cardinals' defense is.  For some reason, the Seahawks are another team at home from on the road.  It also doesn't hurt that Russell Wilson is my fantasy QB, although I might have to go against all my morals and start Romo against the Giants.  Seahawks 27-20

     Dolphins at Broncos: Talk about a game that wasn't supposed to be close at the beginning of the year.  The Dolphins have proven they are not to be messed with, and have wins over the Chargers and Patriots.  Unfortunately, they run into the best offense in the league (arguably) at the wrong time, in a game where Denver must rebound from a loss at the hands of the Rams.  Peyton will go off, and that will be scary.  Broncos 38-27

     Redskins at 49ers: This one will be painful to watch.  RG3 is not the same guy as he was a couple years ago.  I mean, these guys lost to the Buccaneers last week!  (OK, sorry Bucs fans, your team is getting a lot of hate from me).  But seriously, blowout.  49ers 31-10

     Cowboys at Giants: I don't want to do this.  I really don't want to do this.  I just can't' pick the Giants until I see them win something.  (This will all change next week when they play the Jags).  Eli was having a pretty good year until last week, where they really should've beaten the 49ers.  Oh well, there's always next year.  Cowboys 27-20.  Oh, who am I kidding?  It'll be a good day if the Giants only allow 27.
 
     Jets at Bills: Tickets for this one will be free as the game is in Detroit, but I might need to be paid to watch this one.  That's how bad the Jets are.  The Bills aren't much better than an average team, but the Jets make average look great.  Bills 30-17

     Ravens at Saints: This is a must-win for both teams to keep pace in their respective divisions.  The Saints have lost two in a row at home (earth-shattering, I know), but I have to think it ends here.  The Falcons have caught them in the NFC South (not that hard to do really when division leader is 4-6...) and now they have to start winning or else they won't be playing in January.  Saints 31-20

     Have a great week 12, and a happy Thanksgiving break (if you're out this week like I am).
     Connor

Week 11 NFL Picks

     Now the season has passed the midway mark, and the focus begins to really shift towards the playoff picture.  In both conferences there are many quality teams all vying for a small few positions in the postseason.  Every win is crucial as this year ten wins may not even be enough to secure a spot in January.  Many matchups this week will be crucial to the success or failure of contending teams in the second half of the year.  Here's how I see it all going down.

Vikings at Bears: Is this finally the week the Bears get a win?  I know we've been saying this for weeks, but home against Minnesota will give them a great opportunity.  Bears 24-20

Texans at Browns: The Browns are 6-3?  Is it a sign of the apocalypse?  But seriously, Mike Pettine knows what he's doing.  It's basically a Texans must-win, but I don't like their odds.  Browns 27-23

Falcons at Panthers: Want to hear a joke?  Both these teams are still very much alive in the playoff race.  And one of them has to win, so the Saints have a right to be nervous and hope for a tie.  Falcons 20-14

Bengals at Saints: The Bengals are incredibly confusing, I think I've said that a billion times since the year started.  However, the Bengals are bad on the road and the Saints are great at home, so I feel confident in this one.  Saints 34-20.

Buccaneers at Redskins: Another game someone unfortunately has to win.  RG3 played well enough last week to hold his starting job although I felt Colt McCoy had earned the spot.  As for the Bucs, nothing's gone their way, and it doesn't change today.  Redskins 27-16

Broncos at Rams: Now let's think about this for a minute.  The Rams are the most impressive 3-6 team I've ever seen.  They've beat the Seahawks, the 49ers, and nearly took down the Cowboys and Eagles.  But, Peyton is Peyton.  I don't think Austin Davis pulls off another upset.  Broncos 38-20

49ers at Giants: The Giants have lost four straight, but looked sharp through three quarters in Seattle last week, and Odell Beckham is an absolute monster.  The Niners are coming off a huge win in New Orleans, but I say it's time the Giants bounce back and stick a fork in San Fran's playoff hopes.  Giants 30-27

Seahawks at Chiefs: Now this is one interesting matchup.  Seattle has definitely been weaker this season than the last two years, but still remain in the wild card hunt, and are facing some big games up ahead.  The Chiefs are also wild card racing, but I give Seattle the nod in what should be a close game.  Seahawks 24-23

Raiders at Chargers: Haha, very funny Oakland.  You think you can win a game.  Chargers 31-20.  Watch them win now that I said that...

Lions at Cardinals: This is my game of the week.  With a combined record of 15-3, both these teams are safely in the playoffs at this stage.  However, Arizona needs to be able to win with Drew Stanton at QB.  It'll be tough, but I think their defense is strong enough to hold.  Cardinals 20-14

Eagles at Packers: Actually, this could also be game of the week.  Again, the Eagles are trying to hold on in the NFC  East with the Cowboys while Nick Foles is out.  The Packers have been a wrecking crew the last few weeks, including a 55-14 thrashing of the Bears last week where Aaron Rodgers likely would've broken the single game passing  touchdowns record if he played the whole game.  I can't pick against Green Bay at this point in the season.  Packers 37-27

Patriots at Colts: Or is this the game of the week?  Seriously, a lot of great games people.  Andrew Luck will look to continue his MVP form against the hottest team in the league right now.  I honestly have no idea, but I do know that I own Vereen, Edelman, and Gronk in my fantasy football league, so I need them to perform.  Patriots 34-31

Steelers at Titans: Let's face it.  The Titans are at home, but does that really mean they should be expected to win?  I see the Steelers winning big.  Steelers 31-13

Have fun watching the games this week. There are some real good ones.

Connor

2014 WSOP Main Event Final Table Preview / Prediction

     It's time for dreams to be fulfilled and lives to change.  The biggest poker tournament in the world, with a $10,000 buy-in and 6,683 entrants has been reduced to just nine, the November Nine.  All members of this nine will be winning over $700,000, and someone will walk away with a whopping $10,000,000, and at least for a moment be considered the best poker player in the world.  It's the big one, and it's time to see how it all ends.  It's the 2014 World Series of Poker Main Event.

     For people that know me it's no secret that I like poker.  I play home games once or twice a month with friends, and also play Zynga Poker and watch poker once in a while on YouTube.  So obviously the final table of the year's biggest tournament will interest me, but poker, especially Texas Hold 'em, is played and enjoyed by millions around the world who no doubt will also be eager to see the Main Event's conclusion.

     The Main Event really is a special, one of a kind tournament.  It appeals to everyone, and for that reason more and more amateurs make the trek to Las Vegas annually to be a part of the biggest poker event of the year.  More recreational players are in the field than full-time pros, and since 2003 when Chris Moneymaker (great name) became the first amateur to win the event, every average joe feels he (or she) has a chance to make history.  The atmosphere surrounding the event is surreal.

     A great thing about poker is that while better players will always stand a much higher chance to win, anybody could play the best on any given day, and that's simply part of the nature of the game.  In fact, while the November Nine contains mostly experienced poker players (and a foosball champ), nearly everyone plays mostly online and no one has won a WSOP bracelet before.  However, after defeating over 6,000 other hopefuls including the best in the world over seven days of long, difficult play, everyone remaining definitely deserves their spot in the final table.  Incredibly, one of the remaining players, Mark Newhouse, has defied all odds by making it to the final table in back to back years, and will look to improve on his 9th place finish last year.

     It's been nearly four months since the remaining nine have taken the felt in the Main Event, so no doubt everyone will be ready to go.  Here's who's left to compete for an eight digit prize, and how I feel about each of their chances.

1st: Jorryt van Hoof (Netherlands): 38,375,000 chips, 14/5 odds

2nd: Felix Stephensen (Norway): 32,775,000 chips, 4/1 odds

3rd: Mark Newhouse (USA): 26,000,000 chips, 5/1 odds

4th: Andoni Larrabe (Spain): 22,550,000 chips, 7/1 odds

5th: Dan Sindelar (USA): 21,200,000 chips, 15/2 odds

6th: William "Billy Pappas" Papaconstantinou (USA): 17,500,000 chips, 10/1 odds

7th: William Tonking (USA): 15,050,000 chips, 12/1 odds

8th: Martin Jacobson (Sweden): 14,900,000 chips, 8/1 odds

9th: Bruno Politano (Brazil): 12,125,000 chips, 16/1 odds

     Jorryt van Hoof: Obviously as chip leader van Hoof will be expected to make a deep run and have the best chance of winning.  He also has a very large six million chip advantage over second and a 12 million chip advantage over third place, so he will have room to maneuver early on.  An experienced online player, the 31-year old is tied with Bruno Politano as oldest player remaining, a clear sign that "new poker" is taking over "old poker" in today's modern game.  As one of the more experienced players, van Hoof will definitely have a great chance of winning, but the chip leader has a lot of pressure and I wouldn't take him at 14/5 odds.

     Felix Stephensen: The 23-year old Norwegian got the money from his buy-in by betting on the World Cup, cashing in on a $1,000 bet that the Netherlands would beat Australia 3-2 at 60-1 odds.  The Chargers fan built most of his stack up by taking out Tom Sarra Jr. with Ace-King late in day seven.  He has played well, but at 23 years old and with only one prior recorded cash I feel he lacks the tournament experience to prevail, and I don't like 4-1 odds on Stephensen.

     Mark Newhouse: I still can't believe this guy has made it back to the final table.  Two years in a row Newhouse has finished in the top nine out of over 6,000 people.  This incredibly unlikely run is incredible, and proves that Newhouse is one of the best players in the world.  This year he has said he is playing much more relaxed, and it has definitely shown in his game, in which he has made very few mistakes.  I personally believe he is the favorite at this final table simply because he is the only person to have made a deep run in this event before, and knows what it is like being a November Niner.  I would take the 5-1 odds on Newhouse.

     Andoni Larrabe: The Spaniard is even younger than Stephensen, and at only 22 years of age has been an online cash game specialist for years now, beginning on his dad's account at age 16.  My issue with him is that he plays very aggressively and I see him blowing his stack early on, just like many younger players seem to do.  If he wins his first few big hands he'll be very scary and no doubt apply pressure, but I think he'll crack and be one of the first few out.

     Dan Sindelar: Sindelar has the most WSOP cashes of the November Niners with 17, and from what I've seen of Sindelar I really like his game.  He spent most of the Main Event near the top, including most of the penultimate day seven.  I'm surprised that he only has 15-2 odds and I like him to stick around for a while, slowly increasing his stack, and then maybe making a run at the final two or three, potentially winning.  He is the second of three places whose odds I like.

      Billy Pappas: The foosball champion and very likable Massachusetts native is the least experienced member of the final table.  However, he is a world champion, which no one else at the final table can say.  Perhaps he can use his experience in big games in his favor?  The fan favorite Pappas played very aggressively on day six and then conservatively on day seven to make the final table.  It will be interesting to see what approach he takes as he looks to become the most unlikely champion in a long time.  However, his little experience makes me want to shy away from him, even with 10/1 odds.

     William Tonking: Tonking is a difficult player to judge simply because of how little of him was shown on the ESPN episodes of the Main Event.  Out of the final table I've seen the least of him by far, and nowhere near as much as Mark Newhouse, Billy Pappas, and Bruno Politano, the most shown.  For this reason, he sits as the wild card at the table for me.  At 12/1 you could definitely do worse, so he's an okay play for me, but at only 15 million chips it'll be hard.  He's not as good of a play as the next guy in the list.

      Martin Jacobson: The 27-year old Stockholm native is the most accomplished player remaining and has the most live experience, along with $4.6 million in career tournament earnings, putting him on top of the Sweden all-time money list.  At 14.9 million in chips, he's basically in the same position as Tonking, but as the best player available he looks able to come back and has very intriguing 8/1 odds.  I'd take those odds on Jacobson, considering he still has 37.5 big blinds.  If he is able to double up early, beware.

     Bruno Politano: Another fan favorite and strong player is the Brazilian Politano, the other 31-year old left in the field.  Playing thirty big blinds, Politano still has room to maneuver but should look to move up quickly if he stands a chance against top stack van Hoof who has more than three times Politano's stack, and other players such as Mark Newhouse.  At 16/1 odds, you would definitely have a pay day should he win, but again Politano doesn't have much experience and especially as short stack he'll need a lot of help.

     My Final Table Prediction:
9th: Bruno Politano
8th: William Tonking
7th: Billy Pappas
6th: Andoni Larrabe
5th: Martin Jacobson
4th: Felix Stephensen
3rd: Dan Sindelar
2nd: Jorryt van Hoof
1st: Mark Newhouse

     Remember the final table airs on ESPN2 and WatchESPN from 8pm-1am ET today and from 9pm-11pm tomorrow on ESPN and WatchESPN.  It should be a great finale.

Thanks for reading,
Connor

     

Top Level Podcast - NFL Week 10 (w/ Luis)

http://kiwi6.com/artists/TopLevelPodcast/nfl-week-10-podcast-11-8-14

Here's the podcast this week, where Luis and I talk about the Thursday night game, give our midseason awards, talk about two quarterback changes, and make week 10 predictions.

Hope you enjoy,
Connor

Pete Rose Should be in the Hall of Fame!

     25 years ago, Pete Rose was banned from all baseball activities by the MLB, and the sure fire first-ballot Hall of Famer was sent to the permanently ineligible list, never to officially be enshrined in Cooperstown.  His crime?  Betting on Cincinnati Reds games while managing the Reds, a clear violation of the rules of the MLB,   Recently, due largely in part to the 25th anniversary of his ban, many have spoken out claiming Rose's suspension is unfair.  As you can probably tell from the title of this article, I'm one of them.  Pete Rose himself has applied for reinstatent several times and has always been rejected.  Here's why Pete Rose should definitely be a Hall of Famer.

     First of all, for those who don't know who Pete Rose is, the extremely condensed version is Pete "Charlie Hustle" Rose played from 1963-1986 for the Reds, Phillies, and Expos. He was an extremely versatile player who was a switch hitter and could play most positions on defense.  He is most known for being the MLB's all-time hits leader with 4,256.

     I feel like the argument for Rose's inclusion in the Hall of Fame has two major parts: the first is by showing just how impressive Rose's career was, and the other is defending his sports gambling.  First off, let's take a look at just a few of Charlie Hustle's career achievements, because believe me when I say there are many.

     First off,  he played for 24 seasons, which is absolutely incredible.  To be one of the best in the world in anything for that long is ridiculous.  Rose has played in more MLB games (3,562) than anyone ever has, and maybe ever will.

     In addition, he sustained his performance throughout his career, making 17 all-star game appearances, including one when he was 45 years old, which is nearly impossible.  However, the craziest part of Rose's all-star game record is that he did it at five separate positions!  This man could play anywhere on the field and be the best of the best.

     Over his career Rose won three World Series rings and one World Series MVP, which fulfills the "they're great and all but did they ever win" part of the checklist, which separates the great from the greatest in the eyes of many (not me but that's besides the point).  

     He was also the National League Rookie of the Year in 1963, MVP in 1973, won three batting titles, and had two Golden Glove winning seasons.  Rose had a career .303 batting average, something most players would be thrilled to achieve for just one season.  To top it off, the Reds organization had so much faith in Rose that he was even a player manager for his last three seasons, something only a select few players in all of sports can say they have done.

     Typically someone who has received any of the honors I have listed is considered to be one of the best players in the game, but Rose was just at another level throughout his career.  Based on his career alone, Pete Rose's spot in Cooperstown is unquestionable.  However, he did explicitly break an MLB rule.  So, does the punishment fit the crime?

     Again, you should be able to figure out that I don't think it does.  First off, I don't believe sports betting should be illegal in the first place.  In fact, my research paper for English last year, our biggest project of the year, and the subsequent speech based on my research, were on the legalization of sports betting, and an edited version of that paper may find its way on the blog at some point.  So clearly I'm siding with Pete Rose.  But why?

      Well, primarily my thought is simply that his career outweighs his betting.  But additionally, let's take a look specifically on the bets he made.  He bet on every game he managed, and betted on his team, the Reds, every time.  He had so much faith in his team that he bet money on them.  If I'm a player on the Reds, that motivates me and shows that my coach really believes in what we're doing.  

     I also find it important that he bet on every game, not only when his team played one of the cellar dwellers of the MLB or when his ace pitcher was on the mound.  There was no discrimination of any kind in his bets.

     Also, the main reason the MLB has this rule in the first place is to prevent a repeat of the disastrous 1919 World Series game fixing scandal, where eight members of the White Sox (dubbed the Black Sox due to their criminal acts) intentionally threw the World Series for money from gamblers.  Coincidentally, the series was played against the Reds.

     The main point to be taken here is that Rose didn't throw any games, therefore not harming the integrity of the game in any way, despite what the MLB says.  

     Additionally, I'd like to take one of my main points supporting sports betting, one that recently NBA Comissioner Adam Silver and Mark Cuban have acknowledged.  Major sports leagues seem to have no issues whatsoever with fantasy sports, played by millions around the world (myself included).  In many of these leagues there is a money prize the winner receives, therefore making it betting on sports.  It is well known that many professional athletes play fantasy sports, even those involving the leagues they play in.  So, what's stopping Peyton Manning from throwing to the receivers on his fantasy team, or Rob Gronkowski from "accidentally" dropping a pass if his fantasy opponent has him and the Patriots are well ahead?  Sports leagues are hypocritical allowing fantasy sports and not sports betting.

     Now I'd like to stop what nearly turned into a slightly off-topic rant on pro-sports betting, and end my argument here.  In conclusion, I believe for a number of reasons, involving both Pete Rose's playing career and the nature of his bets, that Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.  I hope one day Major League Baseball understands and rightfully ends Rose's ban.  I'd like to end by mentioning a poll done on ESPN.com in August for the 25th anniversary of Rose's ban, asking whether or not Rose's ban should be reversed.  81% of the roughly 500,000 responses ruled in favor of Rose.  The people have spoken.

Connor